2021 NBA Draft: Orlando Magic Big Board
from beyond the RK
Potential, versatility, and wingspan are in the air. Echoes of Kevin Garnett screaming ‘anything is possible’ can be heard ringing from Boston’s half-court leprechaun to the logo that Lillard pulls up from in Portland. Fans’ fantasies of finding future franchise saviors have only just begun. The NBA’s Draft Lottery night is officially less than a week away!
No one big board truly speaks for everyone; each team’s needs, views, and decision-makers differ. In reality, every person looks at each prospect slightly differently; the idea of “consensus” at a certain point can be used against you. Depth of talent in a draft brings a sea of opinions and opposing evaluations along with it, usually affording teams the opportunity to move around slots to find similar prospect value while adding an asset to the cupboard.
This strategy, usually involving the acquisition of a future first while still leaving the draft with a rookie in the same tier of prospect, is a sure-fire way to “win the trade”, such as when Danny Ainge traded the Fultz pick for Jayson Tatum and a future first. However, it can backfire when a team believes a prospect is being undervalued, like when Phoenix’s Ryan McDonough targeted and acquired Mikal Bridges at the tenth overall slot, only giving up the 16th pick (Zhaire Smith) and a future Miami first stockpiled from the Goran Dragic trade years before.
Every prospect holds a multitude of values, all at once; every pair of eyes see something different, while not always looking for the same things. Does the national media create bias by prematurely inflating a prospect’s ceiling? What realistic floors do draft die-hards project? What differs between the league’s perception of a prospect, your team’s evaluation, and the views of the team you’re actively negotiating with? Within your favorite team’s front office, how do views differ between the GM, the President of Basketball Operations, and the team’s lead scouts based on the film, reports, and stats each individual has indulged?
Orlando’s possible timelines are as up in the air as any. Orlando moving down for a third pick in this year’s draft, as in adding three rookies to a roster that features more early-twenty year-olds than a fraternity house full of frat-lapping, fifth-year seniors, seems farfetched, but one move might be apart of a larger plot. Knowing the Magic’s front-office values balancing levels of exuberance and experience in a locker room, they probably do not want to add more than one, maybe two, rookie(s) to this adolescent roster.
The Magic have two chances at lottery picks this year: their own fourth-best odds and Chicago’s top-4 protected first. Orlando has a 27.4% of winning the first-overall pick, as likely a chance as any team with top-4 odds. Orlando also has a 27.4% chance of winning 2nd, a 65.5% chance of landing 3rd–6th, and a 7.1% of falling to 7th. In terms of winning the Chicago pick, the Magic have a 79.2% chance it converting to 8th–10th, breaking down to 34.5% for 8th, 36.2% for 9th, 8.5% for 10th, and a nonzero chance at 11th or 12th.
Draft lottery success in Orlando may be more scattered than you remember. The Magic have only jumped up from their pre-lottery position twice, back in the early 90’s, with the 2nd-best odds when they won the Shaq lottery and the 11th-best odds when landing Penny. Ten times, Orlando received the exact pick in their projected slot, including winning the first overall pick to draft Dwight. Six times, the franchise fell one or two slots from their projected slot.
Below is a 2021 Big Board specifically made for the Orlando Magic. To skip ahead to the full list at the end, click here. The primary goal of these rankings is targeting potential stars, with the secondary goal being to add good players who fit the culture Orlando’s front office is building. Weighing a prospect’s range of outcomes and chances of reaching them against fit with the Magic’s young core becomes a more relevant factor the farther along the draft goes, seeing as potential superstars tend to be the first ones off the board. For longer in-depth prospect scouting reports, check out the articles and YouTube videos from @AboveTheBreak3, @Robeltussin, @BrianJDraft, @Ben_Pfeifer_, and @JackFrank_jjf, aka some Draft Twitter legends.
2021 Orlando Magic Big Board (First Round)
Tier 1 - Superstars
Potential MVP Candidates | Likely All-NBA/All-D
1 Cade Cunningham, OK ST
___ slight dropoff ____
2 Evan Mobley, USC
Cade Cunningham, the potential superstar prize of the draft, needs no introduction. Cade doesn’t have to be Luka to be a franchise cornerstone one-man scoring creator, someone who can run a team’s offense and score off-the-dribble while using his length and feel for the game to positively impact both ends of the floor with a team-first mentality. Not only is Cunningham the do-it-all wing of any team’s draft day dreams, he would step into a Magic roster ready-made for him.
Running the offense through Cade’s natural abilities to score on-ball and create for others eases the load for the entire current rotation. Markelle Fultz can focus on playmaking, whistle-drawing, and mid-range buckets as a secondary option, where Cade can be an off-ball threat. Cole Anthony’s and R.J. Hampton’s decision-making load becomes simpler in a smaller role, while the depth and complementary backcourt talent lets Orlando play two, perhaps three, of these guards at once. The frontcourt featuring Jonathan Isaac, Chuma Okeke, Wendell Carter Jr., and Mo Bamba would find more chances to finish plays, rather than have to create offense from scratch. The team’s long-armed defense would be one of the most versatile in the league.
There’s not much Cade can’t do on a basketball court, which is what makes him such a tantalizing prospect. Cunningham’s not necessarily otherworldly at any one skill other than perhaps passing, yet Cade is good too great at practically everything. Offensively, the cerebral Cunningham has the total package, with realistic hope to continue developing. Skip pass out of P&R? In his sleep. Look ahead transition pass? Without thinking twice. Subtle moves manipulating defenders out of position? The role he was born to play.
Defensively, Cade can play POA on the wing, break up passing lanes on help-side, and make timely rotations. Standing 6'8" 220lb with a 7' wingspan, Cade should have the leeway to switch between nearly any position and hold his own, seeing as Cade has the strength, footwork, and basketball mind to be in the right position at the right time.
Winning the first-overall pick to land Cade probably outweighs any other scenario, even those where Orlando ends up with two non-first-overall Top-10 picks. Cunningham could be the sort of once-in-a-lifetime prospect that turns this Magic rebuild into a one-year dip in the tanking waters, rather than a recurring habit. Win the lottery, trade up for him, plan A, B, and C should involve doing whatever it takes to leave this draft with Cade Cunningham.
Some will rank Jalen Green first or second on their big boards, deservingly so for his otherworldly bounce and bucket-getting abilities. For this current Magic roster, Green could be considered a perfect fit, filling an immediate need as a primary perimeter scoring option. While drafting Green might maximize this roster, the question becomes if the current roster is worth building around. Roster “fit” alone is not enough reason to draft a prospect, when a roster does not already feature a clearly identifiable superstar.
Where the traditional dinosaur big man has died, the skilled modern big has thrived. Nikola Jokic just capped off an MVP season, while Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokoumnpo finished Top-4. All three, along with the not-so-secretly-seven-foot-tall Kevin Durant, led their teams to the second round just this month. Perennial DPOY-candidate Anthony Davis recently had a hot streak from deep that lasted an entire championship run in The Bubble, where he clashed with Miami’s switchy handoff-extraordinaire, Bam Adebayo. Bigs who protect the rim, show shooting touch from deep, hold their own guarding quicker positions, and offer modern feel to the position are the present and future of the league, even as oversized wings remain king.
Enter Evan Mobley, the elite two-way big man in the draft. Evan’s agility, defensive timing, and shooting touch for his length deserves the title of unique in a time when ‘unique’ is overused. Mobley dominated his peers in the college ranks, becoming the third freshman to lead the NCAA in BPM (+13.7), a feat only accomplished by Zion Williamson and Anthony Davis, via @Ben_Pfeifer. In 34 minutes per game, the Pac-12 Player and Defensive Player of the Year dropped a 16p-9r-2a-3b stat-line; Mobley scored efficiently (62.4% TS%), made a ton of twos (61.5%), and blocked everything in sight. (8.8 BLK%)
As the modern big man prize of the 2021 NBA draft class, Evan’s ceiling is seemingly as high as any young existing big in the association, just ask Bill Walton, one of his biggest fans. “The Mobley Show” of Evan and his floor-spacing brother Isaiah, one of the better decision-makers in the Trojans’ offense, showcased their talents at different times for USC, shining brightest in the biggest moments. The duo made a splash on a national stage, pummeling Kansas to make the Sweet Sixteen:
Colorado provided an interesting matchup for Evan Mobley, as they limited some of Evan’s playmaking, making it hard to for teammates to score. This defense ultimately unleashed Mobley’s tough shot-making abilities:
Evan Mobley’s evisceration of Oregon showed scouts everything they came to see in the versatile big’s multifaceted game, with this nail-in-the-coffin dunk sending the team to the Elite Eight, where they’d lose to a still-undefeated Gonzaga team.
The toughest challenge for USC throughout the season was not involving Evan enough, whether due to an inability to send him a post-entry pass or the unwillingness to use him as a roller. Playing through a big in the post who can pass but doesn’t necessarily specialize in creating for others can naturally slow down a team’s movement in the half-court; pairing that big with a natural playmaker is one way to maximize the big’s skill-set. Between Fultz, Anthony, Okeke, Hampton, and Isaac, Orlando has enough playmaking to build an effective inside-out offense while still involving Mobley in motion actions that take advantage of his jump shot and mobility.
Tier 2a - Stars
Potential All-NBA | Likely All-Stars
3. Jalen Green, G League Ignite
4. Jalen Suggs, Gonzaga
5. Scottie Barnes, FSU
This big board is not a list of definitive rankings, it’s more of an exercise in probability theory. Mobley’s unique two-way ceiling and likelihood of reaching it outweigh the ceiling, talent, and fit of Green, in my opinion. Few would say any player on Orlando’s roster warrants a team built around them, other than galaxy brain Magic fans who correctly see the next decade dominated by Jonathan Kawhisaac and Colillard Anthony. This is why the team should take the prospect likeliest to be a star, who looks to be Evan Mobley in this case, due to his rare combination of length and touch.
On the other hand, until the NBA’s rules change, an individual’s offensive skills tend to be more valuable than defensive impact. Jalen Green is a walking bucket whose scoring talent should immediately translate to the NBA. Green can easily turn out to be a bigger star than Mobley; this process is about defining a range of outcomes for each prospect, that prospect’s chances of reaching them, and accounting for that prospect’s chances of success given the current roster and how much the team is willing to invest in development.
Turn on a Nets game for five minutes, and you’ll see why Magic fans are begging for buckets. Jalen Green projects to be an instant NBA athlete and probably the best scorer in his class; some compare his three-level scoring potential to current All-Stars, Zach Lavine and Brad Beal, tough shot-takers-and-makers who the Magic would welcome with open arms. Not only would Green up the excitement factor in Orlando, the floor-spacing wing scorer’s fit with the current Magic roster would be immaculate. At worst, Jalen has a high-floor as a bouncy space-creating shot-creator; his first step, hops, and burst will be differentiating skills at the NBA level the first time he steps on the hardwood, especially when the defense isn’t set.
Jalen Green brings a wow factor to all three levels. He’ll drive into the paint and force the action at the rim, stop on a dime for the smooth middy, or moon-walk into a pull-up from deep. The combination of tough-shot-making, off-the-dribble body control, and mobility on step-backs is rare and lethal at 6'6", as noted by Mike Schmitz:
Jalen Suggs will likely be the second Jalen drafted in the Top-5; somewhere on the NBA Countdown set, Jalen Rose is smiling in approval. While Green might provide this Magic team the true #1 scoring option it desires, Suggs could be closer to the team-first type this Magic front office has targeted in the past, due to his willingness to pass and hustle on defense. Suggs has a rare ability to make reads that only he seems to see, making plays for his teammates on both ends of the floor. Most project Green to have the higher ceiling of the two Jalens due to elite athleticism and shot-creation abilities, whereas Suggs’ confident feel for the game, unselfish play, and all-around ball-skills may reward him a higher floor. Suggs’ playmaking vision is grand, handles are nice, and jumper is smooth.
Watching Jalen Suggs make big play after big play is as entertaining as it gets. Jalen’s vision in transition is masterful, always looking ahead for teammates. In the Final Four against UCLA, Suggs made the play of the tournament with an incredible block and full-court dime before hitting the game-winning half-court buzzer-beating bank-shot moments later. Gonzaga may have lost the title game after an up-to-that-point undefeated season, but Suggs has been a winner at every level, no matter what sport he’s played.
Suggs’ ‘Mr. Football’ status for the state of Minnesota has officially been overplayed as a talking point, but we also shouldn’t brush off that background as irrelevant, when breadth of experience works out for so many athletes picking up subtle movements from one sport and bringing them into another, the theme of Range, by David Epstein. It’s by no means the reason to draft Suggs, nor even a tie-breaking factor, but it’s a positive on his sports resume.
Scottie Barnes has a case as the most underrated player in the class. Barnes’ ceiling could be higher than either of the Jalens due to the high likelihood of Scottie’s big wing frame, impressive switchable defense, and next-level playmaking translating to the next level. If Orlando didn’t already have Isaac and Chuma in place, I’d consider moving Barnes up to third here; players with Scottie’s length, defensive talent, and ball-skills tend to pan out in the NBA.
Projected to be a 6'9" positionless defender who can guard point-of-attack, post-ups, and help-side, Barnes could easily be the most versatile defender in the draft. At Florida State, Scottie stole (3.4 STL%); Barnes blocked (2.1%). Lamar Odom and Ben Simmons, this year’s DPOY runner-up, are examples of this tall, lanky defensive playmaker archetype excelling in the NBA, while Giannis and Magic are two all-time versions of lengthy point forwards dominating the association. Showtime Scottie doesn’t know if he’ll be Magic freakin’ Johnson, but he’ll have fun trying.
45% of Scottie’s attempts came at the rim, while he was assisted on 23% of those rim-shots, which may seem odd for a player his size; Barnes stays aggressive attacking the paint. This playmaking ball of energy uses his 7' wingspan to make slick reads over defenders while guarding multiple positions on the other end. His AST% was 31.6% against a 20.7% TOV%; while his 2P% was 56.1% on 6.5 2PA per game. Coming off the bench is no sweat for future NBAers who attend Florida State, just ask reigning fourth-overall pick, Patrick Williams. In 25 MPG, Scottie Barnes posted a +3.4 BPM with Per-40 stats of 16.7 PTS - 6.5 REB - 6.6 AST (4.0 TO) - 2.4 STL - 0.7 BLK
As teams construct rosters that strive for adaptability, two goals are clear: being able to go big while maintaining floor-spacing and playmaking, and being able to go small without forfeiting defense and rebounding. As for Orlando specifically, Scottie offers a change-of-pace off the bench and depth at an oft-injured forward position. The Magic’s second unit of floor-spacers (Ross, Cole, Hampton, Bamba) couldn’t ask for a better north-to-south force to penetrate the paint, suck in defenders, and set them up for open looks. Scottie, Chuma, Isaac are three complementary, versatile wing talents who can play together, 3/5 of the way towards Orlando’s very own Disney Brand Death Lineup. With the Magic, Scottie Barnes could take as long as he needs to develop his work-in-progress jumper, fill in as an injury reserve along the way, and gain meaningful experience contributing to a competitive team.
Tier 2b - Fringe All-Star
Potential All-Star | Likely Rotation Player
6. Josh Giddey, Adelaide 36ers
7. Moses Moody, Arkansas
8. Tre Mann, UF
9. Sharife Cooper, Auburn
Around this point in the draft is where the real challenge begins. This class is loaded with potential pros; one can talk themselves into twenty or so players, dependent on team needs. The majority of champions needed star talent to contend; the few who won it all without star player(s) achieved success through intense defense and balanced lineups. The primary goal of any draft is to find potential stars, to select the Best Player Available until the limit on projected stars is reached and good players who fit the roster are prioritized.
BPA can mean different things to different teams, especially when deciding between players considered in the same tier. Is BPA the prospect with the highest floor or ceiling, the best player right now or the best player five years from now? What’s understated is how much opportunity, organizational support, and freedom to make mistakes go into these outcomes. When podcasters redraft this class fifteen years from now, the benefit of hindsight doesn’t just say, ‘Team X picked the right player’, it delineates the working franchises from the broken ones. Hindsight tells us which smart teams are invested in the development of their prospects and which aimless teams are rolling the dice, hoping for the savior to float down from their empty rafters.
My general rule is to draft BPA, which I’d define as the highest-ceiling prospects, the likeliest best player when it’s all said and done, weighing in the range of outcomes to a prospect’s potential, realistic odds of development, and adjusting for overlapping skills on the roster that detract rather than complement existing building blocks. An exception to this rule is cap-strapped contenders with limited assets using a first round pick to fill a rotation spot for that season’s title run, like former Orlando GM Otis Smith picking up a rookie Courtney Lee to start on the wing all season for the ’09 Finals Magic team.
Some stereotypes exist between arbitrary draft slot ranges; a top-10 draft pick should be a swing on a star, anyone after the 25th slot is hoping for a diamond in the rough, and any pick in-between should at least be a good basketball player who will contribute to the rotation relatively soon. Late lottery to mid-first round picks tend to consist of sound role guys and flyers on high-ceiling prospects who slipped, where organizational internal identities clash between the process of adding quality players and the draft lottery’s get-rich-quick scheme of winning a ready-made basketball celebrity who sells tickets.
Unguardable scoring in today’s NBA is the most valued single facet of any player’s game, whether it involves finishing at the rim, drawing fouls, or launching jumpers. Shot-creation for teammates, the ability and willingness to pass, though, is an underrated attribute. Scorers who playmake for others can be the difference between an individual 20 PPG scorer and a one-man offense. Players skilled enough to get their own jumper off, aware enough to know where the best shot is as each possession unravels, and savvy enough to use their vision, timing, and passing chops to orchestrate the offense on a play-by-play basis can be a sight to behold; just watch Chris Paul.
Pull-up shooting is arguably the most impactful skill in today’s game, due to the value of the three pointer, difficulty in defending off-the-dribble shooters, and history of rule-changes on top of teams using drop coverage. After the ability to score, catch-and-shoot threes, rim protection, and defensive versatility may be considered the next-most important attributes in a modern player. Combining these offensive skills along with lengthy defensive tools can create an overall talent that separates the good from the great.
Josh Giddey has all the developable ball-skills Orlando could want out of a wing initiator. Drafting him would be something of an upside play, but the 6'8" Giddey can not only run point, he could end up the best passer in a class that features Cade Cunningham and Sharife Cooper. Orlando has the roster make-up to cover up initial defensive deficiencies as the 18 year-old takes a few years to develop into his final form, while Josh flashed quick hands on the defensive end when breaking up passing lanes.
The playmaking is undeniable; Josh Giddey’s vision and touch frees him to make skip passes, hit cutters and rollers, and kick out to shooters on drives. Few prospects in this class can hit teammates with the precision pocket-passes that Giddey has in his arsenal. The shot-making hasn’t quite caught up to the shot-taking, but Giddey can create makable looks for himself and teammates.
If Josh fine-tunes his jumper, the catch-and-shoot ability fits in perfectly with Orlando’s drive-and-kick roster, while becoming a lethal pull-up threat out of pick-and-roll would take his game from a tall playmaker floor to a deadly scoring creator ceiling. Dive deeper into the film with @Robeltussin and @AboveTheBreak3 by clicking either link, both had excellent video breakdowns of what Josh Giddey does well and where he can improve as a shooter, decision-maker, finisher.
On-ball perimeter shot-taking, off-ball floor-stretching, and big-time wing scoring are the most glaring needs for a Magic roster featuring frontcourt play-finishers and driving guards with not enough reliable shooters to kick to. Few players in the draft are as ready-made for Orlando’s current roster as Moses Moody. The 6'6" wing has a 7'1" wingspan to throw at multiple positions, a versatile defender who can fill any defensive role imaginable.
Also a lethal spot-up shooter, 85.7% of Moses Moody’s 3PA were assisted. The SEC Freshman of the Year would give the Magic the off-ball floor-stretching threat on the perimeter its coveted since Fultz entered the picture, an immediate D&3 threat who impressed from the line, a trait of hard-working shooters. Moses shot 38% from deep on 145 3PA and 81.7% from the line on 164 FTA, with rates of 42% 3PAr and 48% FTr.
Moses probably won’t be a go-to scorer out of the gates, but developing the jumper could allow him to be one down the line. Moody’s handles may limit his ability to penetrate the paint and playmake for others at first, but his ball-skills inspire realistic development, and tough-shot-taking pull-up shooting ala a Khris Middleton seems within his ceiling’s wheelhouse. Mikal Bridges’ immediate development for Phoenix is a recent example of this type of long, modern D&3 wing quickly impacting the game. Moses Moody’s money roster fit comes by playing off the creation of Fultz, Cole, and RJ, and gives Orlando its primary POA wing defender in the Isaac-Okeke-Carter-Bamba frontcourt.
Traditional point guards aren’t dead after all. Sharife Cooper is the flashiest dimer in the draft. Somehow able to hold up his jersey standing just 6'1", 180lb, Sharife has potential star scoring creator qualities. A cerebral talent with masterful feel for the game, Sharife can make every pass in the book, leading the class with a gaudy 51.9% AST%. Every game he plays is must-watch TV; every crowd he entertains gets a free show. ‘Rife is on a world tour.
A small guard can maneuver through the paint, attack bigger defenders at the rim, and create shot opportunities for himself and teammates to bring positive impact to the floor. Only 6.7% of Sharife’s shots at the rim were assisted; Cooper scored 20 PPG while posting a 56% FTA/FGA rate; Cooper got to the basket at will, allowing him to rack up trips to the line. His 39% FG% and 23% 3P% aren’t exciting anyone, but his 82.5% FT% and 56% FTr are more relevant indicators of future success, while his 8/4 A/TO is a positive mark.
Cooper’s touch on floaters, funky handles, and forceful finishing at the rim look the part. Defensively, Cooper’s size does him no favors. Smart team defenders can learn to be in the right places at the right time and still be a vocal floor-leader even while giving up size; bad backcourt defenders are destined to get picked on in the biggest moments, but are easier to hide than bad frontcourt defenders, where rim-protection and versatility are so valuable. Sharife will need to develop the jumper to unlock his game, but playmaking always translates, and Orlando has enough lengthy defenders in hand to take a swing on a table-setting offensive guru.
Tre Mann is a highly exciting scorer. Teams can never have enough shooting, but Orlando already has a thrilling pull-up shot-creator in Cole Anthony and a tall point guard who likes the ball in his hands in Markelle Fultz. Orlando would weigh Mann’s overlapping skills with these guards against other prospects’ differentiating skills, which might keep the Magic from drafting Mann, even if he’s technically BPA at their slot. Tre’s height may allow him to play up a position, especially if surrounded by Orlando’s long-armed core.
Tre Mann converted 61% of his rim-shots, while only 17% of his attempts at the rim were assisted, revealing a willingness and effectiveness as a driver. 40% of Tre’s FGA were three-pointers; Mann drilled 39% of his shots from beyond the arc. 31% of these 3PA were unassisted, so Trae isn’t hesitant to pull-up. Tre Mann converted 83% of his FTs, an excellent indicator for his future shooting development.
Concerns exist over Tre’s playmaking for others on a night-to-night basis at the highest level and general defensive impact, yet Orlando might prefer the final piece of their puzzle guard be a score-first floor-spacer anyway. Stretching defenses and involving teammates are complementary skills, until the playmakers in question get tired of passing to each other. Since the overlapping skills in question are pull-up shooting and ISO scoring, and the negatives are ball-stoppyness and lack of defense, maybe the front office sees an offensive ceiling that’s worth the gamble. It’s not like bringing in another aggressive perimeter scorer is affecting the confidence of Ice Cole Anthony.
Mann’s scoring and shooting abilities, along with the upside of his offensive package reaching a sum greater than its parts, could help him immediately fill the perimeter scoring holes on Orlando’s offense while simultaneously rewarding him a higher ceiling than better-fitting D&3 C&S specialists. If one believes Tre Mann’s combination of pull-up shooting, space-creation, and bucket-getting could lead to a star ceiling resembling a top scoring option, as in a true starter on a contending team, his draft stock deserves to be in this range among potential stars in today’s offensive-oriented association.
Which prospect has a better chance to succeed on this roster: a third ball-handling shot-creator or a 3&D wing? Should Orlando add an off-ball shooting threat who fills current roster holes playing off the creation of others such as a Moses Moody, Jaden Springer, or Corey Kispert, a dice-roll on the theoretical higher ceiling? If the front office sees a potential NBA star, that prospect’s ceiling would likely take precedence over a well-fitting role player, but better fit between prospects viewed in the same tier may be a tie-breaker.
Context matters so much with draft picks that individual big board rankings end up overstated, rationalizing a pre-existing belief or bias when the on-court product says something different. Every player’s career is dependent on outside forces, even the select few naturally-born superstars who produce in the league regardless of their surroundings. Coaching style, roster makeup, and organizational cohesiveness all directly affect every player’s approach.
Timing, opportunity, and role are everything. More often than not, talented prospects go to poorly-run organizations only to see their early prime years mismanaged, where teams spend four to seven years going nowhere and playing Head Coach musical chairs before turning around and blaming the player for leaving. Contenders need talent to win at the highest level, but like most forms of success, winning championships is a habit created by well-aligned teams, not one hero-ball savior. Every Jordan needs a Pippen.
Tier 3 - Solid Starter
Potential High-End Starter | High-Floor Two-Way Rotation Player
10 Jaden Springer, Tennessee
11 Jalen Johnson, Duke
12 Kai Jones Texas
13 Miles “Deuce” McBride, WVU
14 Franz Wagner, Michigan
Here lie some of the better defenders in the class. Moses Moody has a high enough floor to be listed among these players, but his potential D&3 talent and developable ball-skills adding up to an all-around impactful wing at the next level rewards him a higher ceiling than any prospect in this group. Jalen Johnson played just 13 games at Duke; his playmaking vision, rim-running hustle, and cutting capability are undeniable. Standing 6'9" 220lbs with a 6'11" wingspan, Jalen has the length, build, and footwork to defend nearly any position. Aged 19, Jalen’s body of work screams upside; if Johnson had a larger sample size of games to evaluate, he could easily have been ranked as high as 6th on this list behind Scottie Barnes.
Jaden Springer is an extremely skilled player who’s kind-of good at everything and will fit into any roster he ends up on due to his sound ball-skills, defensive awareness, and team-first approach. Springer isn’t wowing anyone by breaking ankles or rising over defenders for poster slams; what Jaden brings to the hardwood might be considered more impactful to winning.
Jaden’s natural born gifts, length, and handles will be disadvantages at the next level; his ceiling depends on how these attributes limit or unleash Springer’s understanding of the game. At his best, Jaden Springer can be a smart defender, floor-spacing shooter, and crafty finisher around the rim; while, his worst is unlikely to be overly inefficient. Springer took 34% of all his attempts at the basket, making 65% of those rim-shots. 20% of Springer’s FGA came from beyond the arc; Jaden drilled 44% of his threes, 85% of which were assisted, showing his catch-and-shoot skills.
A strong 6'4" guard who can weave through traffic, draw fouls, and post clean shooting splits (47–44–81), someone who can potentially run an NBA offense well enough to create makeable looks for himself and others, could be a heckuva efficient player in the vicinity of a Malcolm Brogdon. Maybe the ceiling is only a one or two time all-star in the right role, but Jaden Springer’s two-way impact will be felt no matter where he lands.
One word immediately comes to mind when watching Kai Jones hoop: energy. Kai is a 6'11 rechargeable battery pack; Jones never runs out of juice. Making 74.7% of his shots at the rim, 61% of those attempts at the rim were assisted. 17% of Kai’s rim-shots came on putbacks, where Kai converted 71.4% of his attempts. The high-flying rim-runner is a freak athlete in the kindest sense of the word; whether swatting shots or throwing down jams, the dude gets up.
What’s even better for Jones’ future development is Kai’s fluid ball-skills for his size. Jones drilled 38.2% of his threes, while 61.5% of Kai’s 3PA were unassisted. The 68.9% FT% is a poor indicator for future shooting success, but the big-time shot-creation flashes are undeniable. Kai Here Jones uses his length, handles, and shooting touch to get wherever he wants on the floor, set up teammates, and make tough pull-ups:
Miles “Deuce” McBride is an adept, pesky on-ball defender who seems to enjoy his work. The 6'2" Deuce might have trouble scoring against the length of NBA players, but he’s got the speed, body control, and explosion to even the playing field. 24.4% of Miles McBride’s shots at the rim were assisted, whereas 58.7% of his three-pointers were assisted; the undersized guard isn’t afraid to attack the trees or spot up for threes.
McBride posted +9.5 BPM and a 3.1 STL%. Miles hit 81.3% of his 123 FTs and 41.4% of his 111 3PTers, with shooting volume rates of 30.5% 3PAr and 33.8% FTr. Efficient shooting from the line and beyond the arc along with high-effort competitiveness on both ends are great signs for McBride finding a future role in the NBA.
Tier 4b - Fringe Starter
Potential Starter | High Floor Offensive-Minded Rotation Player
15 Corey Kispert, Gonzaga
16 James Bouknight, UConn
17 Alperen Sengun, Beşiktaş
Alperen Sengun is an intriguing throwback big with a post-up package who makes incredible passes. His shooting touch and 80% FT% are positive signs for shooting development. Hopefully the Vooch era didn’t traumatize too many Magic fans if Orlando ended up going this route; an offensive-minded big with strong footwork, playmaking, and play-finishing skills wouldn’t be the worst fit with Isaac and Okeke.
Off-ball shooters Corey Kispert and James Bouknight would fit incredibly well with Orlando’s current roster. Franz Wagner was almost listed down in this tier, since offensively speaking, his floor-stretching skills and roster fit are similar to these C&S threats. What separates Wagner from this group and moves him up a tier is a high floor due to Franz’ height, length, and defense.
39% of Wagner’s shots came from deep, where he converted 34% 3P%. A catch-and-shoot king: 74% of Franz’ 3PA were assisted. 34% of Wagner’s attempts were at the rim, 40% of which were assisted, implying a willingness to cut and roll in the halfcourt along with the ability to attack the rim on drives. Wagner scored efficiently at the rim (71% FG%) and the line. (84% FT%)
A high-energy floor-spacer like his brother Mo, Franz Wagner projects to be an even better pro due to his versatility on both ends. Franz is a long, positionless defender who spaces the floor with an unselfish mindset who’d complement Isaac and Okeke; Wagner keeps the ball moving and stays mobile.
UConn’s James Bouknight is a bouncy off-ball threat, a mobile shooting play-finisher who has mastered the art of repositioning. Whether James ends up a streaky sixth man or starting 2-guard at the NBA level depends on the consistency of his jumper. James has racked up countless DHOs and pin-downs, though his 3P% didn’t stay efficient with the increase in volume, shooting 35% on 2.6 3PA in Year 1 and 29% on 5 3PA in Year 2. His +8.6 BPM and 78% FT%, however, are good signs.
James may be a better finisher than one realizes, making 65.8% FG% of his shots at the rim. His hesi is a go-to move, allowing him to get by defenders with body control and change of pace. Bouknight’s burst, shot mechanics, catch-and-shoot skills, and handles look the part; combining these skills to become an on-ball threat who penetrates the paint, draws fouls, and takes efficient pull-up jumpers would help James Bouknight reach his ceiling.
Differentiating himself from standalone shooters who specialize in spotting up and running around stagger screens, Gonzaga’s Corey Kispert puts the ball on the floor and engage scrambling defenses, like Joe Harris when the Nets’ superstars’ gravity sucks their opponents out of defensive rotation. Kispert’s shooting profile is versatile; an excellent movement shooter right out the gate, Corey keeps plays alive and knows how to time his cuts up for easy looks.
Kipsert’s not creating much for others from scratch, but Corey tends to make the right decision with the ball in his hands. 33% of all of Corey Kispert’s shots came at the rim, while 52% of his rim-shots were assisted. 89% of Corey’s 3PA were assisted, revealing Kispert’s off-ball shooting gravity. Kispert’s shooting splits are stupid, posting a 53–44–88 line in his senior season, scoring 67% TS% overall and making 63% of his twos.
Corey hustles on defense; while his upside on that end is limited, his effort won’t be questioned. He won’t beat NBA defenders off the dribble as a top scoring option, but in a smaller role, Kispert could be the floor-stretching, well-fitting role player who unlocks unguardable heights for an offense, the spoon that stirs the batter.
For more thoughts on Corey Kispert’s shot versatility, check out let’s watch film with @AboveTheBreak3 and Evan Zaucha. To learn more about the art of off-ball shooting and James Bouknight’s game, read this wonderful ancillary article by Mark Schindler.
Tier 4b — Fringe Starter
Potential Starter | High Floor Defensive-Minded Rotation Player
18 JT Thor, Auburn
19 Keon Johnson, Tennessee
20 Usman Garuba, Real Madrid
JT Thor has rocketed up draft boards after a late push; the hybrid forward’s potential at just 18 years-old intrigues front offices due to his combination of defensive impact and shooting upside. A trim 6'10", Thor uses his 7'3" wingspan to clamp down the rim, his lateral movement to switch between defenders, and his reaction speed, agility, and awareness to be in the right place at the right time.
JT shot 91% on putbacks and 61% on all shots at the rim, only 40% of which were assisted. Already a roller who can excel in the dunker spot, Thor’s length offers a tough-to-contest release point, with enough touch on the jumper to inspire realistic development. JT could eventually be used in all sorts of shot opportunity roles as an off-ball play-finisher, making him an adaptable offensive threat on top of his shot-swatting defensive prowess. If Thor can bulk up his strength, develop his intriguing handles, and fine-tune that jumper, JT would take his impact to a tantalizingly high two-way level.
Speaking of defense: Usman Garuba. That’s it; that’s the tweet. Garuba’s 7'2" wingspan, strength, and speed allow him to rebound well and guard multiple positions. The strong point-of-attack defender uses his agility, toughness, and awareness to impact the game. He may not be the fastest, but his length helps him stick with quicker perimeter players. Garuba gaining pro experience and building team habits with Real Madrid only helps Usman gain understanding of the game on both ends at a younger age (18) than most pros.
Usman Garuba’s motor is a well-oiled machine; it never turns off. In transition, the rim-runner is a large target who defenders have trouble keeping below the rim. He’s shown an understanding of weak-side defense, rim-protection, and rotation scheme. Garuba isn’t the quickest defender, but he might end up the most impactful one between his timely use of strength and length. For a deep dive breakdown, let’s watch film of Usman Garuba’s game with @AboveTheBreak3 and Nekias Duncan.
Apologies are in order to Keon Johnson and Tennessee fans for this #slander. Many rate Keon as a Top-10 prospect in this class due to his athletic gifts; some things you can’t teach. All three of Keon, JT, and Usman are such great defenders, they could easily end up a “High-End Starter”; the reason they’ve been moved down to this “Fringe Starter” tier is the odds of reaching their best-case outcome seem slightly less likely than those listed up in Tier 3. Springer, McBride, and Wagner have shown they can impact both ends of the floor rather consistently, while Johnson, Thor, and Garuba are incredible defenders who have shown flashes of what’s possible offensively.
A slashing cutter with a bulky frame capable of guarding either wing position gives Keon Johnson a dependable floor, while his ability to penetrate the paint and defensive upside offer Johnson an exciting ceiling. Between his NBA frame, defensive tools, and developable ball-skills, Keon may have a tad higher ceiling than his Tennessee teammate Jaden Springer, but Jaden might end up the more competitive player right away. The duo sparked an impressive late-game 8-minute comeback for the Vols over Kentucky showcasing their talent.
The Magic desperately need an off-ball sniper to stretch the floor for its collection of driving guards, while a top scoring option reliable bucket-getter on the wing wouldn’t hurt. Though Keon can get north to south, he might not be a consistent shooter or scorer right away; these hash-slinging-slasher qualities aren’t exactly what this roster needs, though there’s a chance Keon has the highest ceiling of any available player when Orlando is on the board. I am once again asking if any current Magic player is worth building the franchise around; because, if not, the front office might toss “roster fit” right out the front door like Jazz bothering Uncle Phil.
Tier 5 - Fringe Role Player
Potential Rotation Player | Talented Prospect
21 Ziaire Williams, Stanford
22 Jonathan Kuminga, G League Ignite
23 Davion Mitchell, Baylor
24 Aaron Henry, MSU
25 Jared Butler, Baylor
26 Josh Christopher, Arizona
27 Kessler Edwards, Pepperdine
28 RaiQuan Gray, FSU
29 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Villanova
30 Chris Duarte, Oregon
HM:
(Cameron Thomas, LSU; Greg Brown, Texas; Day’Ron Sharpe, UNC; Isaiah Jackson/Brandon Boston, Kentucky; Roko Prkacin, Cibona; Joel Ayayi, Gonzaga)
Some of these prospects could be drafted much higher, while others may slip into the second round. The bouncy Jonathan Kuminga has a national profile, played for the league’s inaugural developmental team, and has potential as a superbly strong defender; hopefully his knees can handle his hops. Kuminga could end up being off the board as as high as 5th, but I’ve dropped him on this Magic-centric Big Board due to detracting overlapping skills with Orlando’s forwards, along with concern for his body holding up under an NBA schedule in the long-term.
Baylor, the reigning national champion, features a few pro prospects, Davion Mitchell and Jared Butler. Mitchell, a great on-ball defender with a quick first step, can get shots up off-the-dribble, while Butler can score in a variety of ways between C&S, pulling up, and using his handles to finish at the rim. Jared is a knockdown spot-up shooter, an off-ball threat likely coveted by Orlando. Nearly half of Jared Butler’s shots were three-pointers, while 70% of Butler’s threes were assisted; Jared drilled 42% of his jumpers from deep.
24% of Jared Butler’s shots came at the rim; 30% of those rim-shots were assisted. Jared shot 62% at the rim, 44% on twos, and 78% on free throws; while, Butler’s overall scoring efficiency was 60% TS%. The floor-stretching bucket-getter’s potential mostly depends on how he packages his handles and scoring into an ability to create shots for others, since the shooting is legit.
34.6% of Davion Mitchells’s shot attempts came at the rim. Mitchell converted 65% of his rim-shots while only 17% were assisted, revealing an ability to penetrate the paint. Davion scoring efficiency of 62% TS% and 45% 3P% on 5 3PA is good production, while Mitchell’s 64% FT% from the foul line is a bad sign. He shot well from the field in his junior year, but the poor free throw efficiency may imply this year’s shooting was an outlier. Neither prospect has an incredible frame or NBA athleticism; both play below the rim.
Ziaire Williams is one of more divisive prospects in the draft. Lanky wings who are plus-defenders with nice-looking jumpers and dribble moves aren’t easy to find; one aspect of Ziaire’s game that makes him so polarizing is how the jumper can look smoother than it hits. Williams doesn’t dip the ball down on the catch before release, he brings it to his hips and goes straight up into the shot. Ziaire Williams’ ball-skills and god-given length give him tough shot-taking abilities; the worry is those shots hitting nylon.
47% TS% and 37% FG% efficiency rates aren’t doing him any favors, yet Ziaire found a rhythm from deep over the last ten games of the season, and his 80% FT% inspires hope for a gym rat who can develop his jumper. The athleticism doesn’t jump off the page in terms of burst or bounce, yet Ziaire finds a way to impress defensively. Between his lanky frame and 6'10.5" wingspan, Williams knows how to use his length to break up passing lanes and bring help-side rim-protection; however, he can shy away from contact on drives and instead settle for touch below the rim.
The ability to create space just to get a clean look up is a challenge in its own right, and something Williams is able to do. 39% of Ziaire’s 3PA and 50% of his rim-shot were unassisted, while 85% of Ziaire’s 2PA were self-created. Adding weight, figuring out the jumper, cleaning up the handles on drives, and using his size more forcefully could add versatility to Ziaire’s shot package and defensive capabilities.
Pepperdine’s Kessler Edwards has seen a late rise to his stock on big boards as the draft approaches. The 6'8" swingman is similar to Kispert and Wagner offensively in that he’s money from deep and has the ancillary ball-skills to attack close-outs and make the right play with the ball. His scoring package is deep for a fringe second-round prospect, being able to post-up, spread the floor, and finish plays. Kessler’s scoring efficiency of 60% TS%, 69% FG% at the rim, 38% 3P% from deep, and 88% FT% from the line are great signs for his development as a shooter. Kessler would be a value pick whose floor-stretching fits nicely with Orlando’s frontcourt, if The Magic end up trading down to a realistic draft slot to select him.
RaiQuan Gray is the official tree trunk of the class; no one is moving Gray off his spot without the help of a chainsaw. Xavier Tillman and Grant Williams, still adjusting to the league as cerebral two-way tweeners, have bore “Draymond of the draft” honors in years pas,. This praise isn’t to declare anyone the next Draymond Green, a one-of-a-kind defensive playmaker and future hall-of-famer, but rather to project that a prospect might be able to fill the specific role Green has created a demand for, the modern small-ball big who front offices covet.
Versatile, aware defenders who are truly positionless, bulky enough to hang with bigs down low and quick enough to stick with speedsters on the perimeter, remain hard to find. Defenses pay no attention to Gray from deep, where he shot just 24%; while Gray’s offensive value at the next level is as a pass-first big, RaiQuan shot 61% at the rim, 46% on twos, and 76% on free throws. Raiquan Gray was arguably the best player for Florida State last season, where he showcased his all-around feel for the game on both ends as a strong, agile frontcourt defender who can dribble, attack the rim, and see the floor well enough to make the right play.
Full 2021 Orlando Magic Big Board
(This Big Board was updated on 7/27/21, two days before the draft)
Tier 1 - Potential MVP Candidate | Likely All-NBA/All-D
1a Cade Cunningham, OK ST
2b Evan Mobley, USC
Tier 2 - Potential All-NBA | Likely All-Star
3 Jalen Green, G-league Ignite
4 Jalen Suggs, Gonzaga
5 Scottie Barnes, FSU
Tier 3 - Potential All-Star | Likely Rotation Player
6 Moses Moody, Arkansas
7 Josh Giddey, Adelaide 36ers
8 Sharife Cooper, Auburn
Tier 4 - Potential High-End Starter | High-Floor Two-Way Rotation Player
9 Jaden Springer, Tennessee
10 Franz Wagner, Michigan
11 Kai Jones, Texas
12 JT Thor, Auburn
Tier 5a - Potential Starter | High Floor Offensive-Minded Rotation Player
13 Tre Mann, UF
14 Miles “Deuce” McBride, WVU
15 Corey Kispert, Gonzaga
16 James Bouknight, UConn
17 Alperen Sengun, Besiktas
Tier 5b - Potential Starter | High Floor Defensive-Minded Rotation Player
18 Keon Johnson, Tennessee
19 Jalen Johnson, Duke
20 Usman Garuba, Real Madrid
Tier 6- Potential Rotation Player | Talented NBA Prospect
21 Jonathan Kuminga, G League Ignite
22 Ziaire Williams, Stanford
23 Chris Duarte, Oregon
24 Jared Butler, Baylor
25 Davion Mitchell, Baylor
26 Nah’Shon “Bones” Hyland, VCU
27 Cameron Thomas, LSU
28 Josh Christopher, Arizona
29 Kessler Edwards, Pepperdine
30 RaiQuan Gray, FSU
HM:
(Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, VIL; Aaron Henry, MSU; Greg Brown, TEX; Isaiah Jackson/Brandon Boston, KEN; Day’Ron Sharpe, UNC; Joel Ayayi, ZAGS; Trey Murphy, UVA; Joshua Primo, ALA; Ayo Dosunmu, ILL)
Magic fans have real reason for hope for the first time in a long time. All Top-4 picks would be huge wins, giving Orlando a potential star to root for and build around. One or two late-lottery picks would add to the franchise’s cupboard of exciting, young talent. This complementary roster of competitive talent gives the organization options; the front office has young players at every position good enough to fill a rotation, yet no one is quite untouchable if a star enters the fold at that same position, other than Jonathan Isaac. May the tiny blue balls be in Orlando’s favor; it’s time to Fulfill The Prophecy!
Data Sources: Sports Reference, Hoop-Math
