The Prophecy
The Modern State of the Orlando Magic
“I certainly believe by 2030, we will have won at least one championship,” Magic CEO Alex Martins prophesied, “and I say, ‘at least.’ I firmly believe we’re going to get there, and once you get there, you can come back.”
(Orlando Sentinel, May 2016)
- Apr 13, 2017
Rob Hennigan is released of his duties as Orlando Magic General Manager. - May 23, 2017
Jeff Weltman and John Hammond are hired as Orlando Magic President of Basketball Operations and General Manager, respectively. - June 22, 2017
The Orlando Magic select Jonathan Isaac with the 6th overall pick.
With all due respect to Rob Hennigan, who plucked Victor Oladipo and Aaron Gordon at appropriate draft slots while acquiring Tobias Harris, Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross, and Nikola Vucevic via trade in his Orlando tenure, the Magic’s ensuing regime brought a sense of experience back to the organization. Jeff Weltman and John Hammond made an effort to bring in end-of-bench players whose names fans could actually recognize, filling out the roster with a more balanced mix of veterans and youth. In walked Jonathon Simmons, Arron Afflalo, Shelvin Mack, Marreese Speights, and a 25 year-old rookie by the name of Khem Birch.
When you’re finished yawning, know that this small act of bringing in reliable rotation players helped rebuild the team’s confidence and reputation, instilling more defined roles for everyone and bringing back a demand for competitiveness in the locker room, to no longer accept a losing culture. Hiring Steve Clifford a year later embodied this mentality, who quickly made clear what he expected from players after a close loss to the Warriors just twenty games into his first season:
“We’ve gotta stop with that shit. You know what, you either win or you lose. We’re good enough to win. There’s none of this, you know, “we played hard”; we’re not doing that anymore.” - Orlando Magic Head Coach, Steve Clifford
Initially slowing down the team’s pace by playing on the block and in the post through Nikola Vucevic, the team’s most reliable scoring creator at the time, Coach Clifford had Orlando grinding out possessions with a safer style focused around The Four Factors. Analyzing both sides of the floor with these four stats (ORB%, TO%, eFG%, FT Rate) is a fundamental way of evaluating a basketball team’s success, as researched by Dean Oliver in Basketball on Paper. Offensively, these stats translate to crashing the glass, not turning the ball over, shooting efficiency, and drawing fouls; while, defensively, these numbers involve preventing offensive rebounds, forcing turnovers, the opposing team’s shooting efficiency, and not fouling.
Defensively, Orlando ranked in the Top-20 in all four factors through both of Clifford’s first two seasons as the Magic’s Head Coach. In Year 1, Clifford’s Magic ranked 2nd in ORB%, 20th in TOV%, 10th in eFG%, and 6th in FT Rate; in Year 2, Clifford’s Magic ranked 3rd in ORB%, 10th in TOV%, 18th in eFG%, and 5th at FT Rate. Steve Clifford’s formula of minimizing the number of possessions while emphasizing these four factors helped build a defensive identity that the previous-now-NBA-champion coach, Frank Vogel, did not quite create through his two seasons in Orlando. Clifford’s Magic ranked 8th and 10th in his first two seasons as head coach, while Vogel’s Magic ranked 22nd in Year 1 and 18th in Year 2 during his tenure, via Basketball Reference.
Clifford maximized Vucevic on the defensive end right away, taking him from a turnstile to someone who could play drop coverage and, at a minimum, use his length effectively at the rim. When healthy, Jonathan Isaac was absolutely dominant defensively, clamping down superstars left and right, while the leading the league in STLs+BLKs per game at the same rate as Anthony Davis until J.I.’s season-ending injury. When they could stay on the court, Isaac and Gordon gave the team a defensive backbone with two switchable anchors who could guard either team’s other forwards, covering up some deficiencies of playing a slow-footed big man by only asking for standard rim-protection from a seven-footer. The rotation was full of dependable reserves like Michael-Carter Williams, Wesley Iwundu, and Khem Birch, who at the very least, could defend their position and make team-first plays to fit in around the scoring options. The Magic earned their first playoff birth since the Dwight days on the grit of their defense. (shout out Orlando Magic playoff legend, D.J. Augustin)
The offense, however, has stayed something of a slog. The Magic have never ranked higher than 20th in O-RTG in Clifford’s tenure. A hodgepodge of Vucevic post-ups, Fournier-Vooch pick-and-rolls, T-Ross stagger screens, and eventually Gordon post-ups and Fultz double-drags kept Orlando’s offense afloat, while Clifford’s detail-focused defense kept the team competitive.
Wait, who was that last player named? That’s right, Weltman and Hammond flipped a a late first and Jonathon Simmons, who was out of the team’s rotation, for former first-overall pick, Markelle Fultz, without having to give up rumored Sixers target, Terrence Ross. Lucky for the Sixers, who are currently sitting atop the eastern conference standings heading into the playoffs, that pick became Tyrese Maxey, so all-in-all, things could be worse.
Markelle The Magician had something of a breakout season in his first full year with the Magic. His box score numbers wouldn’t look drastically different from his time in Philadelphia, but watching him become comfortable in his role as a team’s clear-cut starting point-guard is where the real progress was made. The team looked at its most balanced offensively with Fultz at the wheel, especially once Markelle and Vucevic took their pick-and-pop chemistry into overdrive. Everyone thrived; Gordon, Fournier, and Ross found their ideal secondary off-ball roles against scrambling defenses, and Fultz had a clear paint to drive into with a renovated splash mountain in Catch-and-Shoot Vooch waiting for kick-outs from beyond the arc.
Here’s a look at each of those Magic player’s most efficient play-types during Orlando’s 2020 season before the league shut down, by points per possession:
1.17 Fournier Spot-Up PPP
1.13 Vucevic P&R Roll-Man PPP
1.03 Ross Spot-Up PPP
0.95 Fournier P&R Ball-Handler PPP
0.94 Gordon Post-Up / Ross P&R Ball-Handler PPP
0.85 Fultz P&R Ball-Handler PPP
A mid-range assassin with a smooth elbow jumper, Markelle Middy is a crafty playmaking point-guard who can get to any spot he wants inside the arc. Fultz, a long, plus-defender who can guard 1s, 2s, and some 3s, makes plays for his teammates on both ends of the floor, almost always ending up in the right spots on defense and looking to kick to C&S 3PT threats on offense. Defenses will continue to go under screens as long as Fultz’ reputation as a shooter goes unchanged, but he’s showed signs of development from deep. Call it a flash in the pan due to the magic of Disney World, but ‘Kelle converted 10/33 triples in The Bubble, with 6/16 of those coming in the first-round playoff series against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Scouts like free throw shooting as a sign of a developable shooter for many reasons, such as a proven willingness to spend hours in the gym working; one of the brightest signs of hope for Fultz’ overall shooting development can be seen at the charity stripe. Making just 47.6% on 1.5 FTA and 56.8% on 1.9 FTA in his first two seasons with The City of Brotherly Love, Fultz has seen his FT% take a massive leap down in The City Beautiful. In Year 3, Fultz’ first full season with Orlando, Markelle knocked down 73% of his 2.2 FTA. Through 8 games this season before going down with a season-ending ACL injury, Markelle was making 89.5%(!) of his 2.4 FTA per game.
Unfortunately for Orlando, their young prospects never saw the court together due to injury; the Fultz-Bamba-Isaac-Gordon young core didn’t log a single minute in the same lineup in two seasons, via pbp stats. Instead, The Magic forced their way into the post-season in back-to-back years by manifesting a defensive identity, seeing a preview of what was to come with Markelle as the team’s table-setter. Perennial aspirations of chasing the 7-seed, which probably should have been squashed back when Isaac tore his ACL in The Bubble, came to a hault after Fultz tore his ACL just a few months later. Let’s skip ahead to the 2021 trade deadline, which I cover in detail here, where the Magic decided to go full 2K on the rest of the NBA.
The Orlando Magic finally hit the big red button. When Orlando sent out its top three scoring options for a plethora of prospects and picks, the team identity shifted overnight. The rest of the season, Orlando played with tempo, featuring slashing guards all over the place and an onslaught of pick-and-rolls between Cole Anthony, Wendell Carter Jr., R.J. Hampton, and Mo Bamba. The trades changed the way Orlando attacks, with multiple rotation players now capable of driving into the lane and forcing their way to the line. Before the trades, The Magic ranked 27th in FTA (19.5) and 28th in Drives (39.1); as of May 7th, those ranks shot up to 6th in FTA (24) and 14th in Drives. (48.5) This graph visualizes Orlando’s most aggressive foul-drawing drivers in a twenty-game sample after the trades went down.
R.J. Hampton has been on a heater since stumbling into more playing time. Fresh off being named Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month, a month that only includes eight pre-playoff games, Hampton’s been hooping ever since his opportunity to play increased. Playing 30.2 MPG during those eight games in early May, Hampton posted a box score of 16 PTS- 7.1 REB- 5.6 AST (1.5 TO) while shooting 43.5% from deep on 2.9 3PA and scoring 53.5% TS% overall.
As more reps became available with injuries and Orlando possibly tanking a tad harder to finish the season, a workable pick-and-pop partnership between Hampton and Bamba unfolded. Even in the small sample, Orlando potentially finding yet another young guard who can attack the rim is a win, on top of that guard possessing a skill that differentiates him from his backcourt-mates: a blazing fast first-step. Hampton hasn’t been shy about sharing the rock, either; R.J.’s throwing lobs, kicking to shooters, and making team-first plays.
R.J. Hampton’s end-to-end speed is up there with anyone. R.J.’s so early into his NBA career, he seems to still be searching for his game, almost like a skilled athletic create-a-player actively discovering what advantages he has at the highest level of the sport. Hampton often goes full throttle, making hustle plays that opponents aren’t ready for; his end-of-quarter coast-to-coast plays are already a thing. Like Leandro “Brazilian Blur” Barbosa from the seven-seconds-or-less Suns, perhaps Hampton carves out a speedster, spark-plug reserve role. Who knows, if R.J. can fine-tune his quickness, shot-making, and athleticism into being an efficient scorer and a plus-defender at the guard position, his ceiling could be even higher as a two-way starter.
With two game-winning shots and viral moments all season, Cole Anthony’s made a name for himself as a bucket-getting, pick-and-roll running, pull-up shooting closer with funkadelic handles. Anthony set a new career-high in points seven different times throughout his rookie season, dropping 37 big ones in the team’s final game of the year, always keeping Magic fans who are rooting for the tank on their toes. Beyond the post-game interview bravado, the most impressive trait Cole brings to the table as a rookie is offensive consistency and polished package as a scoring creator.
How the efficiency looks as volume increases on a competitive team is the next question, but through one season, Cole proved capable of running at least some of the offense, with his combination of handles, pull-up shooting, bouncy finishes at the rim, and feel for the game adding up to a thrilling sum of their parts. Orlando can count on Anthony as another reliable pick-and-roll ball-handler and the team’s best pull-up shooter going forward.
On the season, Cole Anthony shot 34.7% on 1.5 Pull-Up 3PA and 32.6% on 2 C&S 3PA. This visualization reveals Cole’s status amongst his off-the-dribble shooting peers, as of May 2nd, when Cole’s 1.099 OTD Jump Shot PPP ranked in the NBA’s 75th percentile; note how close Damian Lillard is in efficiency, scoring just 0.009 more PPP than Cole Anthony on over 3x the volume:
Cole creates his own looks; over 75% of Anthony’s shots are unassisted on the season, trailing just seven players who meet the minimum of 20 MPG and 20 GP. Anthony scored 0.8 PPP in 55 ISO possessions; 0.958 PPP on 96 C&S Attempts; and 0.89 PPP on 100 Spot Ups. Cole dribbles the air out of the ball, and it works for him; Anthony’s most efficient FG% this season came after dribbling the ball seven times or more, while his most efficient eFG% came when shooting off zero dribbles, due to the true value of C&S threes.
Out of pick-and-roll, Cole scores 0.863 PPP, the 53rd-most efficient rate among players with 200+ possessions. In 609 possessions with Cole Anthony as the P&R Ball-Handler, the Magic as a team score 0.91 PPP. Anthony kicked to a spot-up shooter out of P&R 119 times, where The Magic scored 0.874 PPP, while in the 109 times Cole hit the roll man, Orlando scored 1.083 PPP. (data via Synergy)
Cole’s improved as a decision-maker throughout the season, taking over lead-guard playmaking duties for Markelle after his devastating injury. Anthony has produced offensively with the more opportunity he sees. Orlando often relies on the double-drag and horns P&R sets, where two players set screens for the ball-handler and either pop or roll, while Cole runs the show.
Anthony’s defense remains hit or miss. The effort is normally there, as seen in his high-energy help-side blocks and board-crashing; but, the fundamentals and footwork, especially when guarding his own man, are still a work in progress. Hopefully these are symptoms of the average rookie, yet if Cole never quite becomes a passable defender, all hope is not lost. Some players, mostly superstars or streaky-shooting sixth men, can impact the game positively overall even while being negative or below average defensively.
If Orlando can make up for any one position being an inconsistent defender, its point guard, which can be easier to hide defensively than in the front-court, where rim-protection and perimeter wing defense reign supreme. Go back to the Dubs’ dynasty teams, whose secret sauce was not only Steph, the fire-breathing head of the dragon, but surrounding Curry with depth of 6'7" switchable defenders. Orlando could theoretically fill a rotation around some offensive-minded guards in the backcourt with plus-defenders throughout the rotation, featuring Jonathan Isaac, Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz, Mo Bamba, Gary Harris, Michael Carter-Williams, and Otto Porter Jr., if the team decides to retain them all.
Orlando’s frontcourt depth fluctuates from not having enough healthy power forwards to not having enough minutes to go around. Chuma Okeke and Wendell Carter Jr. logged just under three hundred minutes together; the time the duo found on the hardwood proved fruitful. Chuma running pick-and-rolls as ball-handler with Wendell as the roller was a sight to behold; Okeke has the handles and feel to make this read, manipulating defenders with subtle movements. The 4-5 P&R is a thing!
Wendell Carter Jr. has recovered from a Chicago stint that left Bulls fans wanting more, closer resembling the dependable prospect he was drafted to be. A do-it-all big who does a little bit of everything, as long as he can fine-tune that outside jumper to make enough of the open catch-and-shoot threes that will be available in this system. The Al Horford comp seems like a fine goal for Wendell: a good to great two-way starter who’s not elite at any one thing, but not hurting you anywhere on the floor, either. Since the move, Carter’s averaging 8.8 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.6 STLs+BLKs and a career-high 11.7 PPG, shooting 49–24–72 and 53.4% on two-pointers, after an even stronger start in his first ten games as an Orlando Magician:
Wendell Carter Jr. scored 0.972 PPP in the half-court with Orlando, via Synergy, doing most of his damage around the basket. Carter’s shooting 62.8% on 4.3 shots per game from within five feet with the Magic, via NBA Stats; among players with 100 non-post-up shots around the basket, Wendell is tied with Richaun Holmes for 25th in efficiency at 1.357 PPP, via Synergy.
Wendell’s almost always in the right place at the right time on both ends of the floor, knowing where to be and when to be there. Carter fits smoothly into Clifford’s drop system as a lengthy plus-defender who can move. According to BBall Index’s impact metric comparison, Wendell Carter Jr. brings positive impact in his role via LEBRON, D-LEBRON, D-RAPTOR, and Luck Adjusted D-RAPM. He’s earned a spot in the Magic’s rotation going forward, with his starter status depending more on Orlando‘s draft pick than anyone currently on the roster.
Big Chum
Chumander
The Chum Bucket
O3KE
CHUMACCCAAAAA
Chuma Okeke can have all the nicknames he wants. Already a fan-favorite in Orlando, Okeke quickly claimed the spot of starting Magic forward. Chuma’s ideal role is probably an offensive-minded four, yet he’s proved capable of switching onto quicker wings when called upon defensively. Okeke has the handles to move through traffic at angles only he sees; no one knows what’s going to happen once the sporadic young forward grabs a rebound and goes or forces a turnover and pushes the pace in transition. CHUMACCCAAAAA started his career off with the energy he knows best: frenetic
Chuma Okeke’s most promising attribute may be his shooting. Chumander breathes fire; the jumper’s wet. On the season, The Chum Bucket is drilling 3 4.8% of his threes, taking 43.5% of his shots from beyond the arc, via BBall Reference. Okeke’s footwork in the post and mid-range has been impressive, helping Chuma became a reliable scoring option for Orlando after the trades.
Chuma’s scoring 1.006 PPP on 180 total Jump Shots,; while, on 133 Spot Ups, Okeke scored 0.962 PPP, via Synergy. His off-ball shooting numbers are really good for a rookie, and even more impressive when contested than open. Overall, Okeke’s scoring 1.194 PPP on catch-and-shoot jumpers, ranking the league’s 71st percentile, via Synergy. Chuma’s 1.447 PPP on 47 Guarded C&S attempts ranks 5th among players with 20+ attempts. At one point in the season, as of April 1st, Chuma lead the league in the small-sample stat:
Chuma’s biggest splash of the season came in the clutch against Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors. Okeke leaves Draymond in the corner to swat Steph from the help-side. Shortly after, O3KE hits two catch-and-shoot three-pointers with under five minutes to play to help secure a Magic victory.
Big Chum brings some passing chops, noted earlier in the 4/5 pick-and-roll videos; Okeke plays team-first basketball on both ends of the court, a common trait among the prospects brought together by this front office. He’s always on the lookout to make the right play, often trading good shots for better shots, to be in the right place defensively to then use his length to force deflections, rather than reach for steals. Here he is showing on pick-and-roll before breaking up the passing lane, forcing the turnover by deflecting James harden’s pass, leading to a wild look from Okeke to AG in transition:
The prospects already in house don’t just give Magic fans hope; they recently inspired cheerful comments from the front office during Jeff Weltman’s end-of-season media availability:
“Some of our older guys are like 23! In the short time post-trades, we saw development. We’re going to go through growing pains. What we see from them is that they want to learn how to win; it’s not about points. They’re hungry for that.”
The superstar ceiling of any one particular prospect may feel unlikely, but the collective high floor of Orlando’s roster full of lengthy team-first players with feel for the game is clear, and eerily similar to the defensive-minded Pistons teams from John Hammond’s days in Detroit. The East ran through Detroit in the mid-2000s; Hammond helped construct that balanced, superstar-less Pistons team that upset the Kobe-Shaq Lakers in the NBA Finals. Ben Wallace, the 4x DPOY and most impactful defender from those Pistons squads, was just announced earlier this week to be a part of the next class of hall-a-famers.
More often than not, superstars win championship; teams generally need incredible talent, two-way chemistry, and breaks with injury luck to make it to the mountain top. It’s not impossible to be competitive without a clear star; it’s just incredibly challenging to get over the final hump, normally due to lack of a reliable scorer and/or creator option against playoff defenses.
These top-to-bottom expectations should give Magic fans hope for any scenario, even in the worst-case timelines where Orlando’s future draft picks don’t pan out or cap space isn’t managed efficiently. Even without adding a fresh marquee player, Orlando should be in the playoff race for the foreseeable future due to internal development and their defensive blueprint. Now imagine the team’s ceiling if they add a superstar to the mix in one of the next two summers without giving up any pieces of that young core, a reliable scoring creator who can make life easier offensively for the Magic’s roster of athletic off-ball play-finishers who have the defense covered, raising the team’s realistic ceiling from pretender to contender.
e n t e r . t h e . M a g i c - v e r s e
All the possible timelines for the Orlando Magic’s summer seem endless; the draft odds alone between Orlando’s two potential lottery picks can turn out all sorts of ways. For the Magic’s own pick, Orlando has a 27.4% chance of winning 1st or 2nd, a 65.5% chance of landing 3rd–6th, and a 7.1% of falling to 7th. A small difference in draft slot could have dramatic impact, with many seeing the prizes of this draft as 2–3 superstar prospects and 5–6 top options, even with plenty of talent to be found throughout. No one has to tell Magic fans about falling one pick short in an x-player draft.
As for the Chicago pick owed to Orlando, the odds could change due to a tiebreaker where the Bulls end up with the 8th-best odds, but let’s play out the scenario where they stay at the 10th-best odds for the sake of this piece: a 20.2% chance exists where the Bulls win the lottery and keep the 1st-4th pick. Otherwise, there’s a 1.3% chance Chicago sends the 12th, 13th, or 14th pick to Orlando, a 17.9% chance Orlando acquires the 11th pick from Chicago, and a whopping 60.6% chance of the 10th pick ending up in the Magic’s hands.
Most draft enthusiasts have this year’s Top-6 “prize” prospects tiered as
1 Cade Cunningham
2 Evan Mobley
3 Jalen Green / Jalen Suggs
4 Jonathan Kuminga / Scottie Barnes
Oodles of names are thrown around after that; here’s a list of some possible lottery targets, in no order: Jaden Springer, Josh Giddey, Moses Moody, Sharife Cooper, Ziare Williams, Keon Johnson, Kai Jones, Tre Mann, Brandon Boston, Deuce McBride, Usman Garuba, Jalen Johnson, Franz Wagner
A) Magic win Top-4 lottery pick, Bulls keep their own pick
The specific draft slot matters here, but things could be worse for Orlando. The Magic win the lottery and come home with one of its marquee names, while The Bulls pick is pushed off for a year. A 14% chance exists of The Magic winnings the first overall pick, where Orlando would almost certainly select Cade Cunningham, the potential superstar scoring creator who checks off every box on the WeltHam checklist between seven-foot wingspan, team-first defense, switchable perimeter defense, and developable ball-skills. On top of the front office’s prospect stereotypes, Cade brings superstar qualities such as shot-creating for himself and others through skill, vision, and feel.
With the 2nd pick, a 13.4% chance for Orlando, there’s a little uncertainty. Evan Mobley is almost definitely the choice at this slot for any team; however, given the fit with Orlando’s frontcourt depth, perhaps they’d give in to the demands of Magic twitter and draft one of the Jalens instead, most likely Green, to fill the roster’s biggest need: a scoring creator wing. The problem with this approach is that drafting for fit is normally a bad idea, other than rare occasions where contenders are filling out rotations with limited assets.
Does this team consider anyone on the roster good enough to hand the keys of the offense to? Jonathan Isaac is reportedly untouchable, deservingly so for his defensive impact; yet, the team’s not necessarily committed to building around any one current prospect, especially offensively. This roster flexibility affords Weltman and Hammond the opportunity to go in any direction, most likely targeting the best player available. For example, if Orlando lands a Cade, he’ll start on the wing while the rotation filling in almost perfectly around him, putting everyone on the roster in more natural roles. The Magic drafting Jalen Green or Jalen Suggs fits this current roster similarly; the question is how Orlando’s front office tiers the Top-6 in terms of BPA.
If Orlando targets Mobley, the potential unicorn defensive anchor big of the draft, that makes three young bigs on the roster . The Magic may end up moving a prospect just to balance out the team’s experience levels. Given Wendell’s balanced two-way play-style, Orlando could theoretically hold onto Carter as a reliable rotation player and placeholder starter while Mobley develops, which in turn could make Mo Bamba available on the trade market.
The Magic could simply have a different prospect 2nd on their board than everyone else; just because a prospect is “consensus” doesn’t mean a team came to the same conclusion. Draft strategy comes into play, where a team can use mock drafts and big boards to their advantage to stockpile assets. For example, when a prospect reaches consensus status as the no-brainer 2nd pick, and the team with the 2nd pick prefers someone else, that team can trade down to lock onto their target prospect while swindling out an extra asset in the process. Consider the time Danny Ainge traded down from 1st to 3rd to add a future first-round pick while still drafting his BPA, Jayson Tatum, knowing Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball were the “consensus” first two picks.
Orlando could fit Green or Suggs snugly into the current rotation, without affecting many current prospects’ opportunity. Jalen Green, the Magic-twitter favorite, balled out for the first-ever G-League ignite team alongside Kuminga and current Magic player Donta Hall. Jalen Suggs led a loaded Gonzaga team with sharp-shooter Corey Kispert, Drew Timme’s mustache, and efficient guard Joel Ayayi to one game short of an undefeated season. Suggs stamped his seasonn with all-time memorable tournament plays in the final four against UCLA, where banking in the half-court game-winning buzzer-beater might have legitimately been his second-best play of the night.
Many believe Green’s pro package of scoring and athleticism provides him the higher ceiling of the two Jalens, whereas Suggs’ two-way team-play, ball-skills, and feel for the game may reward him the higher floor. Orlando ending up with 3rd pick, a 12.7% chance, or the 4th pick, a 12% chance, is roughly as likely as Orlando finishing 1st, 2nd, or 5th; thankfully, most Magic fans are just as content with Green or Suggs as they are with Mobley, even while Mobley is reaching consensus #2 status amongst draft scouts.
The team doesn’t leak information, so who knows which top options Orlando’s front office has ranked highest on their big board; maybe they’re in love with one of the lengthy wing types they’ve historically drafted, even though the positional overlap with Jonathan Isaac and Chuma Okeke may be too much for their liking. Jonathan Kuminga’s defensive potential and NBA-level wing athleticism are tantalizing attributes for any team, while Scottie Barnes is a long, strong defensive playmaker, both fitting a player type Orlando’s front office normally desires.
B) The Magic keep their own 5–7 pick, Bulls keep their own pick
Whelp. The worst possible lottery-ball scenario for the Magic played out here, in other words, a classic Magic move. Orlando slips in the draft and doesn’t gain Chicago’s lottery pick this summer as an extra asset to trade or make a second draft selection. There’s good news, though: a good chance exists that Scottie Barnes or Jonathan Kuminga will still be available in the 5–7 range, or that one of the Jalens slip, while Orlando possesses plenty of prospects and picks to navigate around the draft if they have another target in mind. The Magic have a 14.8% chance at 5th, which is slightly likelier than any one slot in the 1–4 range, and Orlando holds a 26% chance at finish 6th.
Scottie Barnes brings a point-forward game as a tall ball-handler with vision, who’s nothing to sneeze at defensively. With Florida State churning out long, impactful pro players like clockwork and Orlando gaining familiarity with former Noles, Jonathan Isaac and Dwayne Bacon, it’s not unthinkable that Weltman and Hammond might have interest in Scottie as a long-term play who could end up one of the draft’s better players five years from now. Magic Johnson, Ben Simmons, Lamar Odom, and even that reigning 2x MVP Giannis guy who Hammond drafted in Milwaukee come to mind as the best versions of a tall, long playmaker type translating successfully to the NBA.
If worst comes to worst and the Magic’s 7% odds of falling to 7th in a “6-player draft” come to fruition, all hope is not lost, even with the “Orlando Tragic” theme playing out again. Plenty of hidden gems are floating around the lottery pool, ready to be pulled out; and trades are always possible.
Jaden Springer brings an efficient, do-it-all mindset with feel for the game to any backcourt; Moses Moody could fill an immediate role as a roaming off-ball threat and plus-defender. Davion Mitchell hustled to a national championship with Baylor featuring a D&3 style that should slide right into the pros. Keon Johnson is an explosive athlete with potential to grow as a scorer. Kai Jones is a high-energy 6'11" bounce-house from Texas who plays above the rim. Ziare Williams, Stanford’s 6'8" wing, was described by @ Robeltussin as a “versatile shooter with pull-up ability who also displays passing feel, good lateral movement, and secondary rim protection instincts.” Josh Giddey, an excellent passer out of Australia, could be the shot-creator this roster’s been searching for; anyone who T-Mac hesis on the pull-up is welcome in O-Town.
C) The Magic secure two picks, neither in the Top-4
Good news, The Magic are coming home with two lottery picks! Bad news, neither are in the top-2, let alone top-4. There’s a 47.8% chance Orlando finishes 5th–7th. Options remain open, though, as teams may be willing to trade down for two lottery picks if Orlando has a specific Top-4 prospect targeted. The Magic can stay put to take BPA, or even move down in a deep draft to squeeze out an extra asset while still ending up with an appealing prospect. The Magic have to prepare for practically the entire lottery; Orlando’s range for their own pick is 1st–7th, while Orlando has a 79.8% chance of landing the Chicago pick in the 10th-14th range.
Deuce McBride, Usman Garuba, Franz Wagner, Moses Moody, Davion Mitchell, and Keon Johnson are some of the better defensive prospects of the class, with Deuce also displaying a fun all-around offensive skill-set between his elite athleticism, playmaking, and shot-making ability in his time at West Virginia. The Wagners brothers, Franz and Moritz, went to Michigan to launch threes and hustle defensively; Franz may end up the better pro, while some fans speculated if the team owner’s connections with Michigan had anything to do with Mo being signed to this year’s Magic team, even though he ended up shooting lights out for Orlando to end the season. Keon Johnson filled a role as an athletic slasher at Tennessee alongside teammate Jaden Springer, while Jalen Johnson is a 6'9" wing who hinted at a mobile, cutting short-roller game in his stint at Duke. Usman Garuba is building a case as the most menacing defender in the draft.
Sharife Cooper might be the best dimer in the class, racking up assists for Auburn like it was nothing, leading teammates to the basket, and pushing the pace with full-court passes. Brandon “B.J.” Boston, Sharife’s AAU teammate, was a highly touted shooting prospect coming into the year who saw his draft status fall after an underproductive season at Kentucky, where future NBA players go to be underused for a year. Josh Christopher’s a walking bucket from Arizona. James Bouknight is a bouncy, shot-making guard. Tre Mann’s a pull-up threat with efficient shooting splits who hit a clutch step-back in his first march madness game. That’s over twenty names the Orlando Magic could theoretically have interest in on draft night, and is by no means a comprehensive list of possible draft targets or these prospect’s abilities.
D) The Magic secure two picks, one Top-4 and one 10–14
Boomshakala! Best-case scenarios are possible after all; the Magic are the winners of the ball. Landing Cade first-overall remains the biggest win of the draft, while ending up with two lottery picks, including one Top-4 pick, would afford Orlando the leverage to essentially target any prospect they want, if not land a bigger fish on the trade market; all it takes is one disgruntled superstar.
Maneuvering around the draft to pick up positive assets while staying within a similar tier of prospects can be a goal for a team that has no specific target in mind other than building the war-chest. If Orlando worries about fit, then the two lengthy forwards, Barnes and Kuminga, may not be high on their boards; but, it’s possible they view Scottie to have more potential than his projected draft slot due to his combination of length, defense, and feel for the game.
If Orlando stays put in this scenario, taking one of Cade-Mobley-Green-Suggs-Scottie-Kuminga with the 1st–4th pick, then the Magic have a second choice to make. Most likely, they take BPA since coveted talent will be available at any draft slot they end up in. Since they’d have an extra lottery pick to play around with, perhaps they take a high-reward low-risk gamble “reaching” on an overseas prospect like Josh Giddey, drafting someone for immediate two-way roster fit and long-term two-way potential like Moses Moody, or even using each pick to select different positions who may complement each other on the court, like pairing Mobley with Giddey or Scottie with Moses.
Fast-Forward to the year 2022, when The Magic could enter the summer with cap space and a roster situation coveted by free agents. Only six player will be on Orlando’s roster, making ~$54.8M, filling merely half the cap sheet. That figure includes Ross’ $11.5M, who is more of a possibility to be moved than Isaac, Fultz, Anthony, Hampton, or Okeke. The Magic could see early positive results from their young core after a full season together; an “out-of- nowhere” playoff jump next year off strong play from this new-look roster could rebrand the team’s image around the league, where players see a rebuilding situation in a new light as an up-and-coming professional organization rather than a downtrodden franchise stuck in purgatory.
When the Clippers and Nets scratch and claw their way into a low playoff seed, the formerly-butt-of-the-joke organizations gain credibility to help lure a Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George into wanting to play there. We saw a similar idea play out here in Orlando back when Doc, Darrell Armstrong and crew built the Heart-and-Hustle culture that attracted Tracy McGrady and Grant Hill to sign in Orlando, on top of those max salary offer sheets. Here’s a few marquee names who technically can become available in the star-studded 2022 free agent class, a summer where The Magic might be able to carve out TWO, yes TWO, max-salary spots:
Kevin Durant
James Harden
Steph Curry
Kawhi Leonard
Brad Beal
Kyrie Irving
Jimmy Butler
Chris Paul
Zach LaVine
Julius Randle
Luka Doncic (RFA)
Cap space can be leveraged in a multitude of ways. A roster featuring multiple stars at once has endless perks, such as added leeway for rest, injuries, and splitting up playing time. Absorbing other teams’ dead salary to acquire positive assets is generally a no-brainer when that salary is unlikely to be allocated elsewhere. Signing names for the sake of signing names isn’t always a good idea when there’s usually far more affordable players providing high impact in small roles for other teams that can fit into a rotation. Star talent is always the first priority, there’s just a difference between a truly game-changing NBA Superstar and a “TMZ NBA Star” headline hoops celebrity.
Orlando might not be a small city in size, but any franchise that isn’t the Lakers is considered a small market in the NBA. Sunshine (showers) and tax-breaks are positives on the pro-con list for potential free agents, yet for stars who have signed with The Magic in the past, the biggest factors came down to the team’s competitiveness and the money, and not necessarily in that order. The $118M offer may have incentivized All-Star Rashard Lewis to leave Ray Allen behind in Seattle and come down to Orlando to do the dirty work as a power-forward as much as playing on a contender with a young Dwight Howard.
Between the team-friendly deals, exciting draft picks selected, and roster of promising young players collected, Weltman and Hammond have earned the trust of fans going forward. The front office is in good hands as long as “WeltHam” continues to win deals on the margin. Weltman exuberantly hyped up the franchise’s future during his end-of-season media session:
“I can say that in my time here, I’ve never been more excited about the future of our team. I never like to talk about lottery odds, but we have a chance to add one, or maybe two, quality players in the draft… The draft is about talent. You always ask “fit or best talent”. We’re in a great position right now. We’re not going to have 15 players 23 and under. We’ll add some vets to help us grow. We don’t even know if we’ll have one or two picks yet.
Best case scenario, by next summer, it’s not out of the question that Orlando has a roster featuring Jonathan Isaac, Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony, Chuma Okeke, R.J. Hampton, Wendell Carter Jr., Mo Bamba, at least one (if not two) Top-10 2021 Lottery Picks, a mix of veterans currently trying out for roster spots, and enough cap room to make a huge splash in the loaded 2022 free agency. Dream Big: Harden and Scottie? Beal and Mobley? Cade and KD?
(Knicks fans reading this are remembering the commercial break during the draft lottery when Zion and Durant were practically on their way to New York)
Orlando hasn’t seen this much optimism around the Magic’s future since the days of young ‘Dipo, #PaperMario Hezonja, and Air Gordon, irrational or not. Finding a superstar is usually the first step towards contending, whether that be via trade, during free agency, in the draft, or through internal development. Talent always comes first in this league, while only so many pathways exist to finding true game-changing players, especially when the team logo doesn’t sell itself. While 2030 can’t come soon enough, remember, the journey can be just as fulfilling as the destination. Trust the process; await The Prophecy.
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data sources: PBP Stats, Synergy Sports, Basketball Reference, BBall Index, Cleaning The Glass, and NBA Stats (as of 05/18/21 unless otherwise stated)
