Markelle The Magician
A “fake first” from the Oklahoma City Thunder and Jonathon Simmons, an eleventh man on an expiring contract who had fallen out of the rotation to Wesley Iwundu: that’s all it took to change the course for the Orlando Magic franchise. Orlando hadn’t had a point guard they could count on night in and night out since Jameer Nelson, unless you’d like to count last season’s career shooting year for DJ Augustin or the never-ending hope of potential that was Elfrid Payton. Over a decade into the hand-check rules era, Orlando’s most glaring position of need was somehow at the deepest position in the league: a point guard.
Leaving the scoring creator role vacant in a time where teams’ backcourts were so talented they’re playing 3-guard lineups to take advantage of the ball-skills, passing, and spacing available in today’s game left Magic fans puzzled. The most common gripe being to ask the new front office , “why are you passing on guard prospect X to draft another lengthy forward?” Even if legitimate criticisms at the time, Orlando’s front office, led by Jeff Weltman and John Hammond, know the type of prospect they believe is likeliest to develop into a rotation player at the next level: High-character, lengthy defenders with basketball IQ who show a team-first mindset on both ends and flash developable ball-skills, whether that be handles, passing, or shooting; or, if nothing else, the longest available wingspan on the board. So far in their Orlando Magic tenure, Weltman and Hammond have brought in Jonathan Isaac, Mo Bamba, Chuma Okeke, Melvin Frazier, Wesley Iwundu, and Justin Jackson through the draft, while notably being the tag-team front office who drafted Giannis Antetokoumnpo in Milwaukee; Magic fans should come to expect this wingspan mindset on draft day for the foreseeable future.
On Feb. 7th, 2019, the gripes were answered; The Orlando Magic traded Jonathon Simmons and a protected OKC first-rounder to the Philadelphia 76ers for their first overall pick from 2017, Markelle Fultz.
How did the former number one pick of a year and a half prior become available at such a low price? Endless speculation led up to this breaking point: questions about his inconsistent role in the rotation, public misunderstanding of what was ailing Markelle to begin with, whether it be physical, mental, or both; and, rumors emerging of what happened to his shoulder. (the motorbike conspiracy was Markelle’s favorite, too) Where was the prospect who hit five triples a game at 41% from downtown in his lone collegiate season at the University of Washington? Fultz found the answer he was looking for when a doctor suggested TOS (thoracic outlet syndrome) as a possible diagnosis, a rare injury usually held for baseball pitchers. Finally with some understanding of the situation at hand, Markelle was ready to begin rehabbing the right way. Reports emerged that Fultz became unhappy with how The Sixers were handling his findings and rehab plans, before the final straw that broke the camel’s back reportedly came in the form of a benching to TJ McConnell, when Philadelphia was determining its playoff rotation. From the outside, it seemed The Sixers were more focused on that year’s playoff run than they were on helping their first overall pick rehabilitate from a devastating injury.
The truth probably lies in the middle; maybe Markelle wasn’t forthright in making his injury rehab plans clear, maybe Philadelphia wasn’t as aware of Fultz’ injury and general concerns as they should have been, maybe the relationship was too far gone, or maybe the Sixers were so focused on the task at hand with their freshly minted core of Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris that they prioritized a win-now mindset over the long-term well-being of their final prize from Hinkie’s Process. Whether Markelle Fultz’ eventual 30-for-30 reveals this reason or not, it didn’t matter to Orlando; The Magic were happy to be the team to take the Markelle and run.
There’s a chance Orlando’s front office caught a glimpse behind the scenes of what Markelle was going through while he was in Philadelphia. Fultz’ agent, Raymond Brothers, happened to also represent multiple Magic players at the time. (DJ Augustin, Jerian Grant, and future Magician Al-Farouq Aminu) Not that Orlando knew some secret that the public didn’t, but it doesn’t hurt to have direct access to a player’s agent who represents a player on another team, especially when the outside world around that player is so noisy. Hearing Fultz’ side of the story, his ideal injury rehab plan, and any other concerns or expectations first-(or, at least, a close second)-hand has incredible value as a resource when evaluating trade value. This communication channel could be seen as a “loop-hole” according to tampering by-laws, but that’s up for the league to decide; Orlando’s front office did the research, liked what they found, and made the call.
The assets given up held little-to-no long-term value, so there was no downside; Weltman and Hammond could have easily had as much blind optimism when making the trade as Magic fans did when reading the news of it. Even if Orlando’s only recon was Fultz’ collegiate profile that earned him “clear-cut first-overall pick” status in his draft class, that potential alone was worth exploring. Markelle’s ceiling was a two-way, scoring, playmaking star; now, not only could he live up to that potential, he’d be filling the vacancy of Orlando’s most glaring position of need while doing so. Orlando’s front office following that trade up months later by accepting Fultz’ team option before Markelle even stepped on a court for the team felt like a move of assured confidence more than blind hope; surely something positive was seen in closed workouts over the summer to make that multi-million dollar commitment. Other than that time where Pat Williams and John Gabriel notoriously swapped Chris Webber for Penny Hardaway and three future first round picks, the Markelle Fultz trade could go down as the biggest heist in Orlando Magic history.
Markelle Fultz has brought the magic back to Disney World. Weltman and Hammond might have not only found a long-term starter at the team’s biggest position of need, they may have lucked into a franchise cornerstone. Orlando now has a bankable 6'5" guard with a 6'10" wingspan in Markelle who, on defense, is capable of guarding either backcourt position, understands where to be in team defensive schemes, and uses his length to make deflections in passing lanes without reaching; while on offense, he dictates the pace, penetrates the paint at will, and when given enough minutes, consistently creates shot opportunities for himself and others like a top scoring option. Fultz’ two-way game resembles a throwback guard like pre-injury Shaun Livingston or a young Dwayne Wade, someone who can be impactful defensively while bullying opponents inside the arc with power and finesse for 15+ PTS, 5+ ASTs, and 5+ REBs, without even needing to shoot a three.
Every move is intentional, drawing the defense one way to create a smidge of space for teammates; if Fultz doesn’t already have the most fluid handles in the league, he’s fighting Ja Morant for Uncle Drew’s title. Markelle will pull out every trick in the book, every card up his sleeve, to slither his way through the paint to take a shot considered tough that for some reason isn’t as tough for him, without disrupting the flow of the offense. When you watch Fultz play, the word “Fluidity” comes to mind. Markelle is an unconventional force to the rim who creates gravity in the paint in the most modern way: through the drive and kick; and, as long as Fultz continues to stay aggressive attacking the rim, he’ll gain respect from refs and become a more consistent foul-drawing threat. He stays two steps ahead of the defense, whether it be ignoring a screen with a perfectly-placed spin-move, directing Fournier away from a stagger screen set play towards a backdoor cut, or making his way through multiple defenders to make a no-look dump-off pass for a cutting Jonathan Isaac. Fultz’ bag of tricks is endless; he is Markelle The Magician.
Fultz has been nothing but a delight since the moment he donned the blue and white pinstripes. Respectful, humble, and candid with a mic in his face, he seems to have established chemistry with everyone in the building, including his teammates. Fultz and Isaac bring a new energy that excites Magic fans about the the future of the franchise, who reacted to the trade as if Orlando had just drafted him first overall themselves, ignoring the hullabaloo that followed him in the infested waters that is Philadelphia sports media. They’re grateful for a potential star simply wanting to be here, let alone for a legitimate playmaker joining the roster. After Jameer Nelson, Penny Hardaway, Hedo Turkoglu, Tracy McGrady, Jason “White Chocolate” Williams, Rafer “skip to my Lou” Alston, and a hobbled Grant Hill, it’s hard to come up with many names of former Magic players who were better passers than Markelle projects to be.
Don’t believe me? Here’s a mix of Markelle’s best passes of the season:
Markelle makes highlights with both his vision and his athleticism; while we’re here, enjoy Markelle Fultz’ Best Dunks so far as a Magician:
The Numbers
(stats as of 1/24/20 and via nba stats dot com unless otherwise indicated)
PIPM & BBall Index Player Grades
PIPM
according to www.bball-index.com’s Player Impact Plus Minus metric, Markelle Fultz brings positive impact on both ends.
Offensive PIPM: +0.27
Defensive PIPM: +0.40
PIPM: +0.67
Markelle Fultz is one of eighteen guards aged 25 or under with a positive PIPM (among guards with > 800 MIN, via BBall-Index, as of 1/20/20)
data visualization notes: (all 18 guards are above dotted line; Fultz is Age 21)
Player Grades
player grade improvements for Markelle Fultz from last season to this season, via @The_BBall_Index on Twitter (attached below)
Fultz ranks above average or better among guards in the following categories:
92nd percentile for Finishing (A)
87th percentile for Roll Gravity (A-)
86th percentile for Off-Ball Movement (A-)
85th percentile for Perimeter Defense (A-)
82nd percentile for Interior Defense (A-)
65th percentile for Playmaking (B-)
67th percentile for Post Play (B)
Fultz has an average grade among guards in the categories of One on One, Offensive and Defensive Rebounding, while grading out poorly in only one category: Perimeter Shooting
ON/OFF Net Rating
(via pbpstats.com)
Orlando has a positive Net Rating with Fultz ON (1208 MIN)
+1.35 (109.88 OffRtg)
Orlando has a negative Net Rating with Fultz OFF (952 MIN)
-2.48 (102.25 OffRtg)
PPP
Markelle Fultz Points Per Possession by Playtype (> 100 poss)
1.18 Transition (102 Poss)
0.87 P&R Ball-Handler (252 Poss)
Box Score
Per-36 (44 GP)
15.6 PTS 4.6 REB 1.6 STL 6.1 AST/2.6 TO
as a starter (39 GS, 1094 MP, +1.4 +/- )
12.2 PPG 3.7 RPG 4.8 APG (28 MPG)
21.4% USG% | 2.38 A/TO
46–27–75 | 51.5% TS%
This next section titled Markelle’s Magic Timeline is a look at the tape of Markelle’s progress from his first game through his first triple double as a Magician, an attempt to track every big moment along his wild ride of a first season in Orlando, with relative stats sprinkled in along the way. The final section titled The Numbers (continued), has stats from Cleaning the Glass, and extra data from NBA stats dot com, if you’d like to skip ahead.
Markelle’s Magic Timeline
check the tape.
The Tape
(box scores via basketball reference)
(stats as of 1/24/20 and via nba stats dot com unless otherwise indicated)
10/23/19
*Markelle’s first game as a Magician*
(23MP) 12 PTS (6/12 FG) 2 STL 6 AST/3 TO 1 WIN
10/26/19
*Markelle’s first pull-up jumper and three-pointer as a Magician*
(24 MP) 12 PTS 3 REB 3 AST (4/11 FG) (2/6 3P)
Markelle’s jumper remained a question mark through the offseason. He never found his shot outside of the paint in Philadelphia, and the main concern with his game going forward was if his shooting form would ever recover. Over the next few months, Fultz’ confidence in his new form would grow. He hit four shots outside of the paint in his second game in a Magic jersey, including two first-half three-pointers, beginning with this pull-up jumper when Trae Young goes under the screen:
Fultz is 36th in AST% (25.2%) on the season
(among guards with ≥ 20gp and MIN ≥ 15)
Fultz begins to show off his trademark transition no-look dropoff pass:
look familiar? (fast forward to 12/18/19)
10/30/19
the confidence grew three sizes that day…
11/2/19
*six games in, Markelle takes over as a starting Magician*
(25 MP) 9 PTS 3 STL 1 REB 2 AST/1 TO (4/7 FG)
Touches
Fultz averages 5.47 dribbles per touch, the 8th-most in the league
(DJ Augustin is 1st in this category)
11/2/19 & 11/8/19
*Markelle continues to flash his vision as a playmaker*
on the season, Fultz is 45th in A/TO (2.34)
(among guards with ≥ 20gp and MIN ≥ 15)
11/13/19
*Markelle wins his first revenge game vs the Sixers as a Magician*
(21 MP) 8 PTS 3 AST 4 REB 1 STL
Markelle’s 543 total Drives is 18th-most among all guards.
11/17/19
*Markelle sets a new career-high and ices his first close game as a Magician.*
(26 MP) 19 PTS (8/10 FG & 2/3 3P) 3 REB 1 STL 2 AST/4 TO
At the time, Magic fans considered this Orlando’s most exciting close game and best win of the season.
… causing an impromptu appearance as a head on PTI’s backdrop:
11/23/19
*Markelle drops one defender and nine dimes*
(29 MP) 13 PTS 2 REB 1 STL 9 AST/2 TO
on the year, J.Isaac receives the 4th-most passes from Markelle (11.4%) and is shooting 50% (28/56) on 1.2 2FGA per game off feeds from Fultz
STL% via bball-ref
Markelle Fultz is T-24th in STL% (2.2%) among qualified players via bball-ref
12/1/19
*Fultz begins and finishes off one of the nicer ball-movement highlight plays of the year for Orlando with the look-away spin and dish to Jonathan Isaac*
(30 MP) 14 PTS 9 AST 1 STL 4 REB (6/12 FG)
12/3/19
*Markelle sets a new career-high as a Magician, scoring 20 points in front of his family and hometown of Washington D.C.*
(31 MP) 20 PTS 2 STL 3 REB 6 AST/4 TO (9/17 FG)
12/13/19
“droppin’ dimes, droppin’ dimes”
- Kevin Love
-Markelle Fultz
Aaron Gordon receives the 3rd-most passes from Markelle (12.5% Freq) and is shooting 41.7% (15/36) on 0.8 3FGA per game off feeds from Fultz.
12/15/19
*Markelle does a little bit of everything in New Orleans,
starting by ignoring the double drag, finishing through multiple defenders*
(29 MP) 10 PTS 2 REB 1 STL 1 BLK 7 AST/3 TO (4/6 FG)
Hustle
with 96 total deflections on the season, Markelle is T-41st in the NBA
12/17/19 & 12/20/19
defenders…closing out on Fultz?
12/27/19
*Fultz’ second revenge game vs the Sixers involves multiple three-pointers*
1/1/20
*Markelle Magic drops one the best passes of his season*
1/6/10
*Markelle leads a late run for Orlando spearheaded by his new career-high of 25 points*
1/10/20
*Phoenix can’t keep Markelle Fultz out of the paint*
on the season, Markelle is T-41st Paint Touch FG% (70%)
(among guards with > 200 MP)
Markelle’s drop-off passes are lethal. on the season, Fultz is most frequently passing to Fournier (26.9% Freq), who is shooting 43.8% (39/89) on 2 3FGA per game off feeds from Fultz:
1/14/20
*Fultz’ jumper shows progress*
1/16/20
*Markelle records second career triple-double, first as a Magician*
(33 MP) 21 PTS 11 REB 1 STL 10 AST/1 TO (9/19 FG)
considered to be the best win of the season, Fultz and Gordon lead Orlando to a win over the Lakers (without Isaac, Fournier, or A.Davis playing)
full highlight mix:
…hopefully this timeline continues for a long, long time.
Now, a look at some more of Markelle Fultz’ numbers this season!
The Numbers (continued)
(stats as of 1/24/20 and via nba stats dot com unless otherwise indicated)
Offensive Overview & Positional Breakdown
(via cleaningtheglass.com)
Offensive Overview
relative to his position, Markelle Fultz ranks in the…
74th percentile in Usage % (23.8%)
74th percentile in AST % (25.3%)
(diff in how team performed with Fultz on vs. off)
90th percentile in PTS/POSS (+6.6)
97th percentile in eFG% (+5.2%)
Positional Breakdown
Fultz has played 84% of his time at PG (998 MIN) and 16% of his time at SG (190 MIN) the shaded numbers are where he ranks relative to all players:
Shooting
An area where there is plenty of room to grow. Near the rim, Markelle has been solid. As of 1/25/20, Markelle is taking 53.1% of his shots from within 10 ft and making 56.3% of them. (3.2 fgm/5.6 fga within 10 ft per game)
The fact that Fultz is taking and making any threes with confidence at this point is a positive. An outside jumper that defenses have to respect would open up the rest of Fultz’ funky, all-around game.
(among guards with > 200 MP)
Fultz is T-34 FG% (46.2%)
Tracking
Drives
- Fultz is averaging 12.3 drives per game
- Fultz’ 49.3% FG% ranks 27th among guards with over 100 FGA on Drives
- Markelle’s 259 Passes out of Drives are tied for 9th-most among guards
Fultz’ Passing Totals among all players
- 30th Potential AST (421)
- 30th AST PTS Created (549)
- T-37th Secondary AST (25)
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