Why do Jae Crowder Teams keep surprising Vegas?
Three Pointers from Beyond The RK
Talent comes first; teams win championships. NBA Teams can range from a collection of individual stars to a larger group of people who share a common goal and work together to achieve it. Shaq and Charles call the non-stars on these teams, “The Others”. There’s more positive-impact role players in the NBA than there are stars, a VIP club only big enough for thirty or so people. Many of these Other Guys can feel cooped up, like their teams aren’t maximizing their skill-sets; while, players who fill an immediate role can be allotted opportunity to slowly develop within that role, while cashing a whole lotta paychecks over long-lasting NBA careers along the way.
Two-way players who fill their role, play smart team-first basketball, and don’t hurt you on either end of the floor generally make up this next tier: The Robert Covington Crew of Extremely Helpful Role-Players. On his seventh team in in ten seasons, Jae Crowder deserves consideration for that exclusive group. Jae consistently finds ways to impact both ends of the floor for competitive teams; contributing to winning teams by filling a 3&D role for a decade, Crowder’s teams usually outperform expectations. Every NBA team Jae Crowder has played on hit the OVER on their Over/Under preseason odds except for two, Jae’s rookie Mavs and the short-lived Isaiah Thomas Cavs. Crowder was traded mid-season three times; the teams he played with for the majority of the season, always over half the games, are visualized here:
Crowder usually plays so well, pretenders talk themselves into being “one piece away” from contending, with Jae being the final piece to the rotation’s puzzle. In 2014–15, Jae was dealt 25 games into the Mavericks’ season to Boston, where he eventually helped balance those IT Celtics for surprisingly long playoff runs, before being moved with IT to Cleveland in the Kyrie deal during the summer of 2017. Then, 53 games into the 17–18 Cavs season, Crowder was picked up by the Utah Jazz for a playoff chase. In 2019–20, Jae was acquired 45 games into the season from the surprising young Grizzlies by the Miami Heat, who went on to make the NBA Finals.
Jae Crowder’s ON / OFF splits via PBP Stats Net RTG
in Dallas during 2013–14 and 2014–15:
+5.21 Net RTG with Jae ON in 2871 MIN
+0.82 Net RTG with Jae OFF in 5902 MIN
in Boston during 2014–15, 2015–16, and 2016–17:
+5.43 Net RTG with Jae ON in 6026 MIN
-2.43 Net RTG with Jae OFF in 3730 MIN
in Utah during 2017–18 and 2018–19:
+5.96 Net RTG with Jae ON in 2910 MIN
+6.47 Net RTG with Jae OFF in 2246 MIN
in Phoenix during 2020–21:
+6.67 Net RTG with Jae ON in 1648 MIN
+5.97 Net RTG with Jae OFF in 1267 MIN
Crowder is at his best when asked to focus on off-ball catch-and-shoot attempts and perimeter wing defense with a team-first mindset. With a career-neutral 0.2 BPM, Crowder’s had his strongest peaks of high impact when he lands in ideal 3&D roles, even if like most role players, his play can be inconsistent. In 2015–16 with Boston, Jae produced +2.2 BPM, bookended by 0.6 BPM and 0.9 BPM in the Celtic seasons before and after. In twenty post-trade games with the Miami team that would go on to win the east, Jae posted a +2.5 BPM. This season with the 2-seed Phoenix Suns, Jae has a +0.8 BPM.
In Year 2 in Dallas, Jae recorded the league’s 26th-best RPM. (+2.9) In 2015–16, Crowder posted a +1.93 RPM with Boston, the 45th-best. During the 2016–17 Celtics season, Jae dropped a +3.49 RPM, the 21st-best in the NBA. In 18–19 with Utah, Jae tied for 95th in RPM with +0.85. This season with Phoenix, Jae’s ranked 59th in RPM at +1.74. (via ESPN Stats)
The following Data Visualizations zooms out at Jae Crowder’s career impact via Jacob Goldstein’s Player Impact Plus Minus (PIPM) metric. Jae Crowder brought his highest impact in well-defined team-first roles with Dallas and Boston, posting PIPM measures of +2.71 and +3.04, respectively: (PIPM data is unavailable for the current 2020–21 NBA season)
These next two visualizations compare Jae Crowder’s off-ball shooting abilities this season compared to teammates and high-volume catch-and-shoot peers. Jae scored 1.045 PPP overall for the Suns, ranking in the 71st percentile of all players. Most of his looks are in off-ball situations, with only fifty total shots coming off-the-dribble. When left open, Crowder scored 1.373 PPP on 161 unguarded C&S attempts, ranking in the NBA’s 80th percentile; when contested, that rate lowered to 1.056 PPP on 142 guarded C&S attempts, what was still good enough for the league’s 60th percentile, via Synergy. Crowder’s 1.224 PPP on 303 C&S attempts ranks in the NBA’s 77th percentile; and, among players with that high-volume minimum of 300 C&S attempts, Crowder ranks 3rd in points per possession, via Synergy:
Playing alongside The Point God and the rest of the fun, young-gun Suns this season, Crowder’s launching six threes per game, converting 38.9% of his shots from deep. James Jones has stockpiled a collection of competitive players to fill the rotation in Phoenix, and Head Coach Monty Williams has maximized that balanced Suns roster on the hardwood, primarily off the strong play of Chris Paul’s playmaking and leadership, Devin Booker’s three-level scoring, Cam Payne’s career resurgence off the bench, Cam Johnson’s floor-stretching, Ayton’s play-finishing effort, and Mikal Bridges flashing an elite two-way game off strong 3&D play. Jae’s only half-court play-type with over fifty possessions with this gropu is via spot ups; Crowder’s 1.211 PPP on 289 Spot Up opportunities is the 5th-highest scoring rate of any Phoenix Suns play-type with 100+ possessions this season, via Synergy:
Jae’s played 60 games on the season, starting 42 of them. A career 34.6% 3PT shooter who averaged 4.4 3PA per game over ten seasons, Jae may be streaky, but he’s consistent enough to earn respect from defenses. Just this week, Crowder hit a contested corner three for the AND1 4-PT play in the fourth quarter of a playoff game against the Lakers.
Jae’s never been afraid of the moment, either, letting it fly in key possessions throughout his career. Remember when Crowder beat the Raptors with the game-winning shot over two defenders on a three-ball, corner pocket?
And who can forget the time Ja Morant sprinted past half-court, stopping on a dime to cut across the arc and set up Jae Crowder for the game-winning, buzzer-beating catch-and-shoot three over the Nets in overtime?
In peak seasons, Jae has reached more than respectable 3P efficiency. In those 25 pre-trade Dallas games, Crowder shot 34% from deep before Boston picked him up mid-season. Jae had one of the worst shooting stretches of his career while acclimating to that Celtics team in Year 1, making only 28% of his attempts from deep. but he followed that up by shooting 33.6% in 2015–16 on 5 3PA and 39.8% in 2016–17 on 5.5 3PA. Later on, when Crowder joined Miami for the final stretch-run of the 2019–20 regular season, Jae hit 44.5% (!) on over 6 3PA in opportunities that likely came off endless Bam/shooter Handoffs, Dragic/Bam pick-and-rolls, and Jimmy Butler ISOs.
Opportunity has hardly been an issue for Crowder, who averaged 18 MPG in his first three seasons and 29 MPG every year since. Crowder’s volume of 3PA only fell below 3 per game in those first three seasons; Jae’s career-lows in 3P% ranging from 28–30% only occurred three times. Jae isn’t locking anyone down defensively, but he’s a lengthy 3/4 wing and sound perimeter defender who at least brings an element of awareness to the position, knowing the right spots to be in.
Perhaps Crowder’s mixed results in shooting efficiency over the years along with mixed effort on the defensive end is partly what throws projectionists for a loop; defense is also underrated in general, so being unrecognizably above-average yet not quite elite in the area could create a lack of awareness for a “good-yet-not-great” player. Jae is a proven NBA rotation player and capable starter who provides two-way impact to nearly every locker room he steps into; he might not be the marquee attraction, but he’s consistently been an important piece on competitive squads. Whatever the reason, Jae Crowder continues to end up on teams that outperform Vegas expectations, on the “surprise team of the season”. Maybe Jae’s just an undervalued player who is better than his reputation suggests.
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All data via Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted. other data sources: PBP Stats, Synergy Sports, NBA Stats, BBall Index and Jacob Goldstein
