Three Pointers from Beyond The RK
@BeyondTheRK (3/9/21)
This 2021 Donovan Mitchell Utah Jazz team is ballin’ like the 2010 Vince Carter Orlando Magic
The Vince Carter Orlando Magic didn’t quite make the NBA Finals like the 2009 roster, but many fans consider 2010 to be the better team. The depth chart was chock-full of quality rotation players, even if the offense may have became a tad more ball-stoppy after losing arguably their best playmaker in Hedo Turkoglu to free agency. Stan Van Gundy had Dwight Howard rolling, Vince Carter scoring, Rashard Lewis spacing, and Jameer Nelson setting the table. With Matt Barnes, Mickael Pietrus, JJ Redick, White Chocolate, Ryan Anderson, Marcin Gortat, Anthony Johnson, and Brandon Bass flanking the rest of the roster, Orlando ran deep. Just ask JJ Redick his thoughts:
The 2010 Orlando Magic ripped off 59 wins, posting the same record as the year prior, when they won the East; they also led the league in Net Rating with the NBA’s best defense and 2nd-best offense, while drawing the 5th-most fouls in the league on one end and being the 6th-best team at not fouling on the other end. Dwight Howard’s Magic ranked 3rd in not allowing offensive boards, 1st in defensive scoring efficiency by eFG%, and 3rd in offensive scoring efficiency by eFG%.
What does this have to do with the 2021 Utah Jazz? When you compare both teams’ Four Factors, the similarities are clear as day. Just like Orlando did in 2010, the 2021 Jazz hold the league’s best Net Rating, host a Top-5 Offense and Defense, and rank 3rd in not allowing offensive boards, Top-3 in scoring efficiency by eFG% on both ends of the floor, exactly 17th at giving up turnovers, and bottom five at forcing turnovers. (via Cleaning the Glass)
One team is built on the broad shoulders of a DPOY rolling big, a one-time All-Star veteran point guard, a bouncy ball-dominant wing scorer, and depth of floor-spacers, while the other is made up of… a similar recipe. Both defensive strategies involve a roster of mostly average or worse individual defenders forcing opposing offenses towards the paint where the marquee shot-blocking big man is waiting to close off the rim. Both offensive strategies are P&R dominant, mixed with ISOs and Post-Ups respectively, all of which create double-teams leading to kick-outs, ball-movement, and open triples.
At the time, Dwight Howard was a two-time DPOY on his way to a third straight. In the 2009–10 season, Dwight went on to lead the league in Free Throw Attempts, Blocks Per Game, Rebounds Per Game, FG%, eFG%, DBPM, Defensive Win Shares, while the team’s D-RTG with Dwight ON the floor was the lowest of any player in the league, via Basketball Reference. Rudy Gobert is a two-time DPOY and a great night-to-night rim-protector for the regular season, but I’ll be the first to tell anyone that Gobert is not anywhere near the two-way force that Prime Dwight was; this is more of a comparison of team philosophy, play-style, and roster construction, and the two bigs simply play a similar role. This data visualization from a few months back compares the Career PIPM of every center that made All-NBA 3rd team in the 2010s. Rudy Gobert’s current PIPM is unavailable, but a similar impact metric known as LEBRON ranks Rudy’s impact as 5th-best in the league with +5.0. (via BBall Index)
Prime Dwight remains in a tier of his own.
While each team’s roster makeup is eerily similar, subtle differences in play-style remain. One disparity is how the 2021 Jazz give up the fewest threes made and taken in the league, while the 2010 Magic ranked closer to the middle of the pack of giving up threes. After the Magic parted with their 6'10" point-forward in Hedo, the ball seemed to stick more the following season. Orlando ran heavy on Dwight P&Rs, but The Magic’s offense still had their share of Vince ISOs and Dwight Post-Ups. The spacing made it effective, especially from snipers like Rashard Lewis and Ryan Anderson; the ball just didn’t move quite as naturally as the year Orlando made a Finals run.
Compare that to the 2021 Jazz, who move the ball as well as anyone. Joe Ingles has a little Hedo to his game as a lanky forward who can dribble, pass, and shoot. Mike Conley, as underrated a point guard as they come, is a natural floor general. Donovan Mitchell has consistently been a scoring threat since he entered the league. Bojan Bogdanovic and Jordan Clarkson give the Jazz two other legitimate scoring options to lean on who can create shots for themselves from deep and at the rim while being able to kick out on drives. The Jazz’s depth is less stationary 3&D depth around stars and more of a never-ending swarm of dynamic drive-and-kick options around Gobert P&R and Donovan Mitchell ISO possessions.
2010 Vince Carter’s and 2021 Donovan Mitchell’s most efficient scoring methods, via Synergy:
In 2010, Vince Carter’s 0.991 Overall Half Court PPP ranked in the 85th percentile in the league; in 2021, Donovan Mitchell’s 0.983 Overall Half Court PPP ranks in the 55th percentile in the league. Both had premier rollers to work with; most of Vince’s P&Rs were with Dwight Howard rolling, while most of Donovan’s P&Rs are with Rudy Gobert rolling. Donovan Mitchell’s 0.875 PPP in 375 possessions as the P&R Ball-Handler ranks in the 49th percentile; Vince Carter’s 0.959 PPP in 487 possessions as the P&R Ball-Handler ranked in the 85th percentile.
The P&R may be the most effective play for their teams to consistently find the best shot, but when things break down, these were the two you wanted taking the tough shot. In ISO situations Vince Carter scored 1.02 points per possession (PPP) in 152 possessions, which ranked in the 93rd percentile in the league; Donovan Mitchell’s 0.88 PPP in 75 possessions ranks in the 44th percentile.
These two elite on-ball scorers might sneakily be even more effective as off-ball threats! Vince’s 1.106 PPP in 245 C&S possessions ranked in the 80th percentile, while Donovan’s 1.374 PPP in 115 C&S possessions ranks in the 91st percentile; Vince’s 1.085 PPP in 235 Spot Up possessions ranked in the 81st percentile, while Donovan’s 1.363 PPP in 135 Spot Up possessions ranks in the 95th percentile.
Per-36 box score stats (via basketball reference)
Vince Carter: 19.4p 4.6r 0.8s 0.3b 3.7a/1.7to
shooting 54.1% TS% (43–37–84) on 16 FGA 5 3PA 5 FTA
Donovan Mitchell: 26.2p 5r 1s 0.3b 5.7a/3.2to
shooting 54.9% TS% (42–38–82) on 21 FGA 9 3PA 6 FTA
Scoring at a similar rate, Vinsanity could easily catch Donovan Mitchell’s numbers here with more shots at those same percentages, especially with today’s pace and open play-style. Even so, the dynamic scoring threats both already bring on the wing is obvious.
Both teams led the league in threes per game. The 2021 Jazz have won 75% of their games (27–9), are taking the most threes (42.8 3PA) and are making the most threes (17.1 3PM). Utah ranks 3rd in 3P% (39.8%), 2nd in DREBs (37), and 8th in Blocks (5.3). The 2010 Magic won 72% of their games (59–23), took the most threes (27.3 3PA), and made the most threes (10.3 3PM). Orlando ranked 3rd in 3P% (37.5%), 1st in DREBs (33.4), and 5th in Blocks (5.6).
After dominating the regular season, that Magic team went on to lose to a healthy Kevin Garnett in the Eastern Conference Finals. Jazz fans can use that information how they please. In a weird year, Utah has figured out their recipe to contend behind a top-5 offense, a top-5 defense, defending the long ball, and launching from the long ball; the only question remaining is, ‘when things break down, when the lights are brightest, did anyone remember to pack sunglasses?”
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