The Robin Westbrook Effect: How Russ playing second banana impacts his co-stars Bradley Beal, Paul George, James Harden, and Kevin Durant
Three Pointers from Beyond The RK
There may be no player as polarizing to sports fans as Russell Westbrook. The sequence of Westbrook rebounding, going coast-to-coast, and gliding to the rim or stopping on a dime for the elbow pull-up jumper has been a Russ staple since he entered the league. Hardcore basketball fans notice the postseason shortcomings, putrid perimeter shooting, and questionable decision-making, while general sports fans might only see the five-year trend of thirty-point triple doubles. Teams with Westbrook as the clear #1 option tend to have limited ceilings; good enough to drag a team to the playoffs, but probably not balanced enough to win a series through inefficient hero-ball; wheras, squads featuring Russ as the second best player have reached the Finals, taken a 3–1 lead on the 72-win Warriors in the playoffs, and generally seem to better suit Russ with a role focused on driving and kicking.
After a 6–17 start slogged into an 18–32 record due to early-season injuries and Covid taking out the locker room, the Wizards are BACK and on an 11–2 run chasing the play-in game. In that 13-game span, Washington has the 8th-best Net RTG (+4.9) and the 6th-best defense (109.8), via Cleaning the Glass; Westbrook is posting 21p–14r–13a–2s while shooting 45% on 18 FGA, 32% on 3 3PA, and 69% on 6 FTA while Beal is dropping 31p-4a-4r-1s and shooting 50% on 24 FGA, 40% on 6 3PA, and 89% on 6 FTA. What’s most impressive is the team defense; no one believes Beal, Westbrook, and shooters should have a problem on the offensive end. The Wiz have forced their way up to the 10-seed, playing as well as any team entering the play-in tournament. Shout-out to Robin Lopez, the fun-loving hook-shot flicking behemoth who seems to uplift every locker room he enters. They might not when a series, but no one is looking forward to a game with winner-take-all stakes against Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal.
Pairing Westbrook’s swift first step with shooters is a natural thought to maximize his efficiency; we saw this play out when Russ landed in Houston. Daryl Morey went all in on small-ball before departing from Houston, dealing away Clint Capela and bringing in Robert Covington; Westbrook thrived. Russ was legitimately scoring as efficiently as any season in his career, surrounded with catch-and-shoot (C&S) 3PT threats who moonlighted as long, switchy defenders on the other end. This bountiful production came before the bubble, where Westbrook was dealing with a leg injury and fresh off contracting Covid, which hampered his level of play for the entire postseason.
Russell Westbrook’s averages in fifteen starts with Houston after the Capela trade:
29.7 PTS (would-be career-high other than his MVP season)
Career-High 52% FG% on 22.9 FGA
Career-High 36.8% 3P% on 2.5 3PA
So is Westbrook maximized as a secondary option, maintaining his drive-and-kick role while not having to handle the responsibilities as lead decision maker who the offense primarily flows through? In OKC, Durant won MVP and scoring titles playing the role of Batman to Russ’ Robin; later on with the Thunder, Paul George would have the most efficient shooting season of his career and finish 3rd in MVP with Westbrook setting the table. On the Rockets, Harden set career-high or near career-highs in multiple shot volume and efficient metrics. In Washington, Bradley Beal is currently having the most efficient season of his career in a backcourt with Westbrook, while in a scoring leader race to the finish with Steph Curry.
If Russ is maximized as a driving force paired with C&S 3PT threats, imagine how much more the two ends of that drive-and-kick have to be respected when the kick is to a Top-20 player who’s as elite a shooter as any C&S threat in the league AND good enough on the ball for Russell Westbrook to rationalize giving up half-court touches.
“Bradley’s the tip of the spear for us, and Russell came in on Day 1 and said, ‘my job is to make Bradley Beal the very best player I can’, and now all of a sudden Bradley’s leading the league in scoring.”- Tommy Sheppard, Washington Wizards GM
(via The Ryen Russillo Podcast)
Here’s some of the awards and stats that Westbrook’s co-stars have achieved over the years:
Kevin Durant (2013–14, OKC)
Career-Highs: 32 PPG, 20.8 FGA
League-Leaders: 32 PPG, 2593 PTS, 33% USG%, 849 FGM 1688 FGA, 703 FTM, 805 FTA, 3122 MIN, 29.8 PER, 10.2 BPM
All-NBA 1st Team
NBA MVP
Kevin Durant’s entire tenure in OKC with Westbrook:
5x All-NBA 1st Team
1x All-NBA 2nd
1x MVP
6x Top-5 MVP Finishes
6x Top-5 BPM
Paul George (2018–19, OKC)
Career-Highs: 28 PPG, 2.2 SPG, 8.2 RPG, 21 FGA, 9.8 3PA, 7 FTA
Steals League Leader, All-Defense 1st Team, All-NBA 1st Team, (3rd in MVP)
Finished on All-NBA 3rd team and 2nd in Steals the year prior as well
James Harden (2019–20, HOU)
Career-High: 62.6% TS%, 55.6% 2P%, 10.2 FTM, 11.8 FTA,
2nd-best in career: 34.3 PPG, 9.9 FGM, 22.3 FGA, 4.4 3PM, 12.4 3PA, 1.8 SPG
Brad Beal (2020–21, WAS)
Career-Highs: 31.4 PPG, 34.4% USG%, 48.6% FG%, 22.9 FGA, 34.7% 3P%, 3PAr 27.6%, 53.9% 2P%, 16.6 2PA, 3.6 BPM
WOWY Combos via PBP Stats
(Did the star duo outscore opponents when they were both ON the court?)
-0.58 Net RTG with Beal and Westbrook ON (2020–21 WAS)
+4.76 Net RTG with Harden and Westbrook ON (2019–20 HOU)
+8.98 Net RTG with George and Westbrook ON (2018–19 OKC)
+6.69 Net RTG with George and Westbrook ON (2017–18 OKC)
+4.03 Net RTG with Westbrook ON (2016–17 OKC)
+13.29 Net RTG with Durant and Westbrook ON (2015–16 OKC)
+10.09 Net RTG with Durant and Westbrook ON (2014–15 OKC)
+7.1 Net RTG with Durant and Westbrook ON (2013–14 OKC)
+10.99 Net RTG with Durant and Westbrook ON (2012–13 OKC)
+6.78 Net RTG with Durant and Westbrook ON (2011–12 OKC)
+10.73 Net RTG with Durant and Westbrook ON (2011–12 OKC)
+2.67 Net RTG with Durant and Westbrook ON (2010–11 OKC)
+0.03 Net RTG with Harden and Westbrook ON (2010–11 OKC)
+5.6 Net RTG with Durant and Westbrook ON (2009–10 OKC)
+10.89 Net RTG with Harden and Westbrook ON (2009–10 OKC)
Data Visualization comparing PIPM of Durant, Harden, and George:
(How much impact did each co-star have in their role playing with Westbrook compared to other seasons? Beal left off since 2021 PIPM is unavailable)
Harden’s highest recorded PIPM came in the 2019–20 season alongside Westbrook in the backcourt. George’s highest recorded PIPM came the season before that with Westbrook as second banana. Durant’s highest recorded PIPM is with a young Russ in 2009–10, while maintaining high impact play in his entire OKC tenure. These results don’t necessarily mean these were each star’s best season, but they do reveal how much positive impact these stars had in their role as the primary scoring option with a snarling Westbrook standing right beside them.
Let’s be clear: Durant, Harden, Beal, and George are superstars in this league whether they’re on the same team as Russell Westbrook or not. There’s other factors at play that may contribute to these stars playing elite basketball that could have nothing to do with Westbrook that should be taken into consideration, such as independent skill development, daily shooting drills, standalone talent, or playing with other superstars that make the game easier due to playmaking and shooting gravity such as Chris Paul, Kawhi Leonard, Steph Curry, and prime John Wall.
This piece hopes to measure the benefit of Westbrook as a secondary option: is his presence maximizing production for both stars while giving the team the best chance to win? By adding Westbrook alongside certain players, are you able to split up the shot variance into the most efficient way possible for each star to find shots in their ideal role, or are you stuck in a my-turn your-turn loop? When walking the fine line between pretender and contender at the top, talent is one thing, while complementary talent can create another; a sum greater than its parts. So, are Russell’s co-stars more efficient catch-and-shoot 3PT threats simply due to Westbrook’s presence? Here’s a look at each of his co-stars C&S 3PT Efficiency since 2013–14, the earliest the NBA Stats started tracking it:
Did Westbrook’s co-stars post career-highs? Some, at the time, but not entirely. Most performed as well as one can hope, even though George is putting up better numbers playing with Kawhi, Harden has posted better numbers in a backcourt with CP3, Beal has dropped better numbers alongside a prime John Wall, and Durant has shot more efficiently playing with Steph, let alone the 26 games this season (unpictured) next to ISO specialists Kyrie and Harden, where KD is shooting a career-high 47% C&S 3P%. It might be worth noting that some superstars, like Harden and Durant, are so special on the ball, that they may be best-suited playing a certain style, even if they’re also some of the best off-ball shooters ever. Westbrook’s fit alongside ISO specialists who can shoot might be less effective than his fit with knockdown shooters who can ISO.
This piece set out to find if Russell Westbrook is making his co-stars better, if he’s creating easier off-ball looks than normal, and what sort of co-stars fit best, with the results showing that players who are good enough shooters to take loads of catch-and-shoot triples while being talented enough to demand on-ball touches fit like a hand in a glove. As Westbrook’s teammates, Durant shot 39.4% on 6 C&S 3PA in 13–14 and 38.7% on 6.7 C&S 3PA in 15–16, George shot 40.2% on 7.7 C&S 3PA in 17–18 and 38.5% on 9.8 C&S 3PA in 18–19, Harden shot 35.5% 3P% on 12.4 C&S 3PA in 19–20, while Beal is shooting 39.6% on 6.3 C&S 3PA in 20–21.
These stars all posted near career-highs in C&S volume and percentage, while noting that they still generally played at an even higher level when paired with other impactful superstars like Kawhi Leonard, Steph Curry, Chris Paul, and John Wall. So, while Westbrook might not be the best teammate these stars have ever played with, it’s safe to say that he’s created an efficient amount of high-volume catch-and-shoot looks for his co-stars at an elite pace, especially when Russ is given a clear runway in the paint created by the shooting gravity of others. A balanced scoring load with ideal shot selection is possible when Westbrook buys into his natural role as a driving force and kick-out extraordinaire.
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Data sources: NBA Stats, Cleaning the Glass, BBall Index, Basketball Reference, PBP Stats
