The Pokumon Master, The Bounce Bros, and The Paw
Three Pointers from Beyond The RK
Aleksej Pokusevski is the most tantalizing bad player in the NBA. Pokusevski hoops with a level of self-belief ranging somewhere between the confidence of Patrick Mahomes and the bravado of Jameis Winston; there’s a chance of something magical happening on any given play. Poku thrives in the unknown; he lives in the chaos. He doesn’t lose games; he learns lessons. Mishaps aren’t mistakes as much as miscalculated missile launches. Even when he isn’t in the game, he considers himself a threat to a score.
Pokusevski loudly entered the league a raw, bright-eyed prospect, filling Shaqtin’ a Fool’s low-light reel nearly every night. Uncomfortably thrown into the NBA, he was probably the worst player in the league to start the year. How did his team resolve the situation? By offering Aleksej something even more important for his development: game reps to catch up to game speed.
After a stint in the hyperbolic g-league time chamber, Poku took his game to another level, while still experimenting with just as many exciting, risky plays on the fly, like a mad scientist mixing beakers in his lab. He’s shooting more efficiently on all fronts and he’s improved as a decision-maker in his role as a seven-foot pick-and-roll ball-handler. Pokusevski simply looks more comfortable out there with the benefit of g-league experience, this real opportunity he’s been given, and the specific role he’s been asked to fill that appropriately matches his current skill-set as a secondary playmaker, developing 3PT shooter, and P&R maestro.
in Aleksej Pokusevski’s 51 possessions this season where he’s passed to a teammate as the P&R ball-handler, the Thunder have scored 1.196 points per possession, ranking in the NBA’s 75th percentile.
Overall on the season, Poku’s synergy numbers are bad, and even worse since they include the pre g-league stint. (growing pains are good!) In 78 possessions as the P&R ball-handler overall on the season, Poku’s team score 0.538 PPP. As a jump-shooter for the entire season: in 130 3PT Jump Shots, Aleksej Pokusevski scored 0.831 PPP; in 102 C&S attempts, Pokesevski scored 0.912 PPP; in 127 Spot Up possessions, Poku’s team scored 0.827 PPP.
Let’s break up and break down Poku’s box score before and after the g-league, where Poku saw increases in every traditional stat across the board:
pre g-league:
17 GP (17.4 MPG)
3.3 PTS — 3.5 REB — 1.2/1.3 AST/TO
24.7 FG% — 17.9 3P% on 5.5 FGA — 3.3 3PA (no FTs)
30.1% TS% / 10.2% AST% / 19.1% TOV%
post g-league:
16 GS (30 MPG)
12.2 PTS — 6 REB — 2.7/2.5 A/TO
37.6 FG% — 35.5% 3P% — 84.6 FT% on 11.6 FGA — 5.8 3PA — 1.6 FTA
49.4 % TS% / 14.2 % AST % / 16.8% TOV%
Aleksej Pokusevski is a Seven-Foot Serbian Assassin, a bond-villain casting director’s dream. He’s the point-forward project of Oklahoma City’s future, who has all of the time and resources to develop at his own pace. He’s lived up to his draft hype as a unique player due to his skilled feel for the game at his height; how many seven-footers are running pick-and-rolls, making no-look passes to open shooters, AND hitting pull-up threes, other than his Bosnian brother and MVP front-runner, Nikola Jokic?
It’s scary to think about the versatility the Thunder offer going forward, with a top pick in this draft, budding star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, lockdown defender Lu Dort, the polarizing Pokusevski, a plethora of prospects in Theo Maledon, Kenrich Williams, Isaiah Roby, and Darius Bazley, along with half of the league’s future first-round draft picks. Poku will leave no rock left unturned searching for new ways to pass, shoot, and mind-control a basketball around the hardwood; whether that play is a no-look cross-court pass through a triple-team in transition to a wide-open 3PT shooter or a wrap-around-the-entire-defense-pass to the open man in the corner, The Pokumon Master plans to catch ‘em all.
The Bounce Bros have to take a leap; and fast. With the heartbreaking news that Jamal Murray has torn his ACL, Denver takes a devastating blow on multiple fronts. In addition to wishing Jamal a quick and full recovery in what could be up to a two-year process, The Nuggets miss out on testing out their unstoppable starting lineup of Murray, Barton, Gordon, and Porter next to Jokic during the “free money” time. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. have two seasons before new contracts could be in the mix; Barton can become a free agent this summer. The Gordon deal was a win-now move where “chips” like a young prospect in R.J. Hampton, a rotation player in Gary Harris, and a future first round pick were pushed in with the idea of a long-term windows for success, given the mid 20s age of the core, starting now.
Porter has been red hot in his past 16 games, where according to Jackson Frank, MPJ is averaging 21.2 points on 70.5% TS% and a 60-53-75 split. On the season, nearly 79 percent of his makes are assisted, 72.5 percent of his baskets come from touches lasting fewer than two seconds, and he’s ninth in the NBA in points per touch (.452). Gordon has thrived ever since his arrival, accepting his new role as a versatile threat on both ends, an off-ball swish-army-knife having the best shooting season of his career in addition to being a slicing, dicing, cutting machine built to finish plays created by the wizardry of a lead playmaker like Nikola Jokic. In 235 minutes of playing time on the court together, the trio of Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., and Nikola Jokic have given Denver a Net RTG of +11.08. (via PBP Stats)
With a smart decision-maker like Monte Morris, a flashy dimer like Facundo Campuzzo, and a capable yet unproven NBA shooter like Markus Howard in the fold, along with the ability to go big with Dozier, Barton, or even Gordon guarding point-of-attack since Jokic is running point as a center, Denver’s depth affords them options to fill some of the production lost by Murray’s absence, even though they won’t ever fully replace the dynamic scorer that Jamal’s always capable of exploding into.
Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Will Barton will have to up their offensive responsibilities, with MPJ and Barton likely upping their scoring load and AG probably taking over some secondary playmaking out of necessity. Porter and Gordon won’t mind the extra volume; hopefully the efficiency stays constant. On the season, MPJ’s scoring 1.192 PPP in 3.8 Spot Up opportunities per game, and otherwise scoring mostly in the flow of the offense through transition (1.149 PPP, 87 poss), cuts (1.485 PPP, 68 poss) and put backs (1.058 PPP, 52 poss). On low-volume off-ball attempts, he’s been good in 37 Hand Offs (0.919 PPP) and okay in 35 Off Screen opportunities (0.8 PPP). In just 22 MPJ ISOs, Porter’s created 1.136 PPP for his team, so maybe we’ll see more of that as well; since Gordon should handle more of the P&R ball-handler duties, being the slightly more effective player in that play-type. (0.641 PPP on 78 possessions for AG in Orlando vs. 0.476 PPP on 21 possessions for MPJ)
Gordon’s Orlando scoring rates of 1.108 PPP on 65 Spot Ups, 0.83 PPP on 53 post-ups, 1.08 PPP on 25 putbacks, 1.238 PPP on 21 cuts, and 1.034 PPP on 29 Handoffs offer a promising all-around skill-set that allows Denver to play a multitude of ways. In a tiny 73 possession sample size through ten Denver games, AG’s overall half-court 1.205 PPP scoring rate would rate in the league’s 98th percentile. He’s mostly scoring off cuts and spot ups, other than transition, but he’s been efficient in every play-type he’s tried. Can The Bounce Bros hold their own carrying bench units in a playoff series with their complementary combination of scoring creation and two-way versatility, or do they need to stay in their pristine roles playing off-ball, focusing on finishing plays created by The Joker?
First came The Klaw; here comes The Paw. Patrick Williams is the NBA’s next great two-way freak of a forward. Critics can point out a lack of aggressiveness or playmaking, but The Paw checks nearly every box you can want in a modern wing. PatWill stands 6'8" with a 7' wingspan and has already squashed some of his perimeter defense concerns coming out of Florida State. Thought to be “just” an uber-athletic help-defender stuck at the 4 coming out of college, he’s held up better than expected defending quicker wings at the 3, being a full-time starter small forward as a rookie.
He’s everywhere at once defensively, one of those center-fielders who covers the entire weak-side while the other four defenders focus on the ball. He protects the rim, breaks up passing lanes, and can switch seemingly any position, while still having known struggles with smaller speedsters. His offensive skill-set is reliable enough to play on the wing as well. PatWill is slowly proving his knockdown midrange pull-up jumper (0.87 PPP, 49th in the NBA among players with 25 attempts), which may give you a view into what the fans nicknaming him after Kawhi can see, if you squint a little.
Patrick Williams’ Rookie Box Score:
9.4 PTS — 1.3 AST/1.4 TOV — 4.6 REB — 0.9 STL — 0.7 BLK
47.5 FG% — 38% 3P% — 76.7% FT%
(7.7 FGA — 2.1 3PA — 1.7 FTA)
55.6% TS%
Is there a Zion-stopper in our mix? There aren’t many 6'7" wings with 7' wingspans and the athleticism of Patrick Williams on Earth to begin with, let alone NBA players who are impactful on both ends of the floor; the ones who flash ball-skills and defensive awareness with that rare combination of length, strength, and bounce are special. Still only a rookie, PatWill is one of the few players in the league who have given Zion Williamson any trouble, forcing at least six turnovers by my count in the defensive highlight video preceding this section. (NBA Stats says two steals and five blocks in the matchup on the total for the season) Even if Patrick Williams ends up reaching a ceiling closer to a great defender and secondary All-Star scorer like a Pascal Siakam rather than Kawhi, one of the greatest players and defenders of all time, that’s an exciting player for a prospect who rose late on draft boards due to his combination of modern NBA skills, even while coming off the bench in college.
The Vucevic trade is partly made by Chicago as a sign of belief in Patrick Williams’ development. If Vooch’s ideal role on a contender is as the third star big like Kevin Love playing off LeBron, or Brook Lopez playing off Giannis, the ideal hope is that Patrick Williams enters an All-NBA tier of forward while Vooch is still at the tail-end of his prime. In the short-term, Lavine and Vucevic give Chicago two All-Star scoring options and a fighting chance at the play-in tournament to bring the squad meaningful playoff experience going into next season.
Chicago’s window for contention while Nikola Vucevic is around relies on the speed and ceiling of Patrick Williams’ development as a lengthy two-way prospect with potential to a flat-out star on both ends of the floor. By cashing in two Top-5 protected firsts that could easily be lottery picks, a salary-matching expiring contract in Otto Porter Jr. who’s a capable perimeter defender when healthy, and a solid young rotation center in Wendell Carter Jr., The Bulls went all-in on a win-now push that they hope bridges a window of competitiveness from Lavine’s and Vucevic’s prime to PatWill’s future. No matter where he ends up falling on this spectrum of two-way wing forces, The Paw is grabbing this opportunity by the horns.
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Data Sources: Synergy Sports, PBP Stats, BBall Index, Basketball Reference, NBA Stats, Cleaning The Glass
