Orlando Magic 2021 NBA Draft Notes

from @BeyondTheRK

Luckiest Orlando Magic Draft Night Ever?

• Orlando‘s “draft luck” has been better in the lottery, once jumping from the 11th-best odds (1.52%) to the #1 overall pick in the CWebb draft, one of the unlikeliest jumps in draft lottery history. Orlando’s front office later negotiated three future firsts out of Golden State in the Penny-Webber draft night trade, marking the single best draft night surprise in franchise history. The Magic winning the Shaq and Dwight lotteries with favorite odds going in set the franchise up for years.
• Orlando may never have had this degree of luck on draft night itself, as the consensus #4 prospect and immaculate roster fit, Jalen Suggs, slips to 5. Scottie Barnes’ athletic ceiling may be higher in a vacuum, he was no reach at 4. Jalen likely has the clearer path to reach his best developmental outcomes on this Magic roster. Suggs has the chance to contribute right away as much as any rookie given his all-around two-way skillset; he fits right into new Head Coach Jamahl Mosley’s identity of pace, space, pass. This roster offers Suggs as clear of a path as any to reach his scoring creator ceiling due to the complementary prospects, the need for a scoring creator option to pop, and the upward trajectory of the roster.
• Oladipo and Isaac being taken at 2 and 6 respectively have cases for best draft night luck; few Magic fans would have issue with calling Suggs slipping to 5 the best thing to happen in a Magic draft since the Penny deal, and perhaps the single luckiest draft night to ever happen in Orlando, given the Magic’s consistency in falling one slot below the projected franchise saviors of each draft class. Orlando’s front office led by Jeff Weltman, John Hammond, and Matt Lloyd, deserve credit for drafting Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner.

Magic Draft Pick Stats and Data Visualizations

At the Rim

• Jalen Suggs
  64% Rim-Shot FG%
  50% Rim-Shots/FGA
  30% assisted
• Franz Wagner
  71% Rim-Shot FG%
  34% Rim-Shots/FGA
  40% assisted

Beyond the Arc

• Jalen Suggs
  34% 3P% (3.5 3PA)
  34% 3PA/FGA
  51% assisted
• Franz Wagner
  34% 3P% (4 3PA)
  39% 3PA/FGA
  74% assisted

At the Line

• Jalen Suggs
  75% FT% (3.8 FTA)
  37% FTA/FGA
• Franz Wagner
  84% FT% (2.8 FTA)
  30% FTA/FGA

Shot Quality

Passing

• Jalen Suggs
  4.4/2.9 A/TO
  23.7 AST% / 19.5% TO%
• Franz Wagner
  3/1.3 A/TO
  17.4 AST% / 10.8 TO%

Shot Quality’s Assist Per Game is similar to Potential Assists. SQ Passing Points Created is a lump sum passing metric that accounts for every pass made, the number of points scored, and includes passes that leads to fouls.

Team Possession Quality

• Gonzaga had the best offensive shot quality of any NCAA team last season, via ShotQuality.com, averaging 1.37 PPP in adjusted Offense Shot Quality; the Bulldogs ranked T-16th (0.96 PPP) in adjusted Defensive Shot Quality.
• Michigan ranked T-6th on adjusted Defensive Shot Quality (0.94 PPP) and T-14th on adjusted Offensive Shot Quality (1.21 PPP) among all teams in the NCAA.

Jalen Suggs’ shot profile ranked in the 66th percentile by Shot Quality’s PPP among all NCAA players; Franz Wagner ranked in the 76th percentile.

Draft Pick Notes

Franz Wagner differentiates himself from other off-ball threats in this draft class with versatile frontcourt defense and intriguing ball-skills given his height (6'9") and wingspan (7'). With 74% of his 3PA coming in C&S situations, Wagner’s overall 3PT efficiency (34%) and volume (4 3PA) show a willingness to shoot from deep with roughly average efficiency; Franz’ jumper earns respect from the opposition, allowing him to react to scrambling defenses by shooting, passing, or attacking close-outs with the dribble drive.

Wagner’s 84% FT% is a positive indicator for future shooting development, theoreticaly revealing a gym rat mentality, someone willing to spend the necessary hours to improve small holes in one’s game. ~3 FTA isn’t a ton of attempts, but Wagner’s 30% FTA/FGA rate could translate to an average foul-drawer in the NBA. Being “average” or “good” may sound underwhelming, but when a prospect projects to be average or good at so many things, and bad at so few, the sum of skills could end up larger than the parts.

Franz’ footwork, awareness, and timing with his length helps him defend multiple frontcourt positions, make defensive rotations, and complete hustle plays like deflections and charges. A high-energy floor-spacer like his brother Mo, Franz Wagner projects to have a higher ceiling as a pro due to his two-way versatility. A long, potentially positionless defender who spaces the floor with an unselfish mindset, Wagner keeps himself and the ball moving, instantly complementing seemingly everyone on the roster.

Jalen Suggs is just what the doctor ordered for the Orlando Magic. A team lacking a true household name, a franchise that has consistently fell one draft slot below projected star picks in recent years, finally found their guy. The prescription entails a player with a height of 6'4" and a wingspan of 6'6", a guard who projects to run some point, score on and off the ball, playmake for others, and defend 1–3. Suggs thrives in transition and at anticipating team-first plays on both ends.

Suggs is a winner at every level; taking home three gold medals with Team USA Basketball before the age of 19 and delivering three state titles to his high school, Minnehaha; Jalen Suggs was named Mr. Football and Mr. Basketball for the state of Minnesota. Jalen has a second cousin whose name you may recognize: two-time Super Bowl champion, Terrell Suggs, who ranks 12th All-Time in the NFL in sacks. (via ESPN)

Not losing until the final game of the season, Jalen’s Gonzaga team just missed out on joining the rare air of the all-time undefeated college teams. Suggs’ memorable block, recovery, and full-court dime in the Final Four against UCLA was the play of the tournament — perhaps the play of the year — a sequence that came mere moments before Jalen hit a game-winning buzzer-beating half-court bank-shot to reach the national championship.

Multi-sport athletes gain experience in different sport settings, sometimes picking up tricks from one game and translating them into skills in another; Jalen being so impressive in transition, always a threat to make a play in the open court, could have something to do with his processing speed as a QB reading coverages while dodging tacklers over and over again on the field.

Critics claim Suggs doesn’t have the #1 primary scoring creator option ceiling that Jalen Green offers, that his athleticism, handles, and burst might not be able to quite beat NBA defenders off the dribble. Some also question if the Gonzaga situation was so ideal between quality of teammates and coaching scheme, that his team’s possession quality was a byproduct of the system more than any one player. Suggs’ highest praisers comp Jalen’s team-first winning mindset, leadership skills, and all-around two-way game to former stars like Brandon Roy, Jason Kidd, and Chauncey Billups, the lead guard from those defensive-minded 2000s Pistons teams that happens to have been built by a Detroit front office that featured Orlando’s current GM, John Hammond.

Realistically, Suggs could end up somewhere in-between, filling a connector role like Lonzo Ball or Tyrese Haliburton, maybe even the best version of that player type. There’s a chance he never reaches a point where he’s beating NBA defenders one-on-one in the halfcourt, yet he should be able to break down scrambling defenses with back-breaking plays within the system; maybe less of a one-man offensive engine and more like the best oil money can buy.

Orlando’s lineup configurations are endless; they can go big or small with the option to throw three guards or forwards on the court together at any given moment. Essentially every perimeter player is a threat to either drive, pass, and/or shoot. Many prospects not only complement each other, some even specialize in a skill that another player of the same position struggles in. Bamba is a threat to pop for three while Wendell is a playmaking hub at the elbow and post-up threat, both capable of rolling when engaged. Franz’ and Chuma’s shooting and ball-skills help balance out Isaac’s higher defensive impact and outside shooting struggles, as will Suggs and Cole with Fultz. Role concerns may exist for Hampton given Suggs’ presence, but R.J. is officially 6'6" and plays with more north-south burst; either could see playing time as the tallest guard in 3-guard lineups, on top of any backcourt opportunity. Chuma and Franz have overlapping traits, but all positive; one can never have too many floor-spacing, plus-defender wings who keep the ball moving.

This offense may lack a primary option, but multiple players can fill a myriad of roles at any given time. Fultz, Cole, and R.J. have shown the ability to beat defenders off the dribble, while Markelle has proven he can get anywhere he wants on the court. With drive and kick threats in place, Orlando can open up the playbook, possibly focusing on DHOs (handoffs) and P&R sets (pick-and-roll, double-drag, horns, spain, inverted, etc.) Suggs will take reps as a P&R ball-handler, breaking down the defense with the help of a screener, and the Magic could always experiment with a hybrid forward such as Isaac running an ISO with spacing, Chuma running a 4–5 P&R with Wendell like they flashed last season, or Franz probably being most impactful as an off-ball threat, including motion shooting roles.

Could any of Isaac, Chuma, Franz, Wendell, Suggs, Cole, and R.J. develop handoff chemistry?

How many P&R variations can you come up with between Suggs, Cole, R.J., Chuma, or Fultz as P&R ball-handler and Bamba, Wendell, Chuma, Isaac, or Franz rolling or popping as screeners?

For spacing, Suggs, Chuma, Bamba, Franz, and hopefully R.J. should stretch the floor to varying degrees, whiled Isaac has shown inconsistent flashes from deep. Defenses won’t respect Fultz and Wendell from downtown yet, but both continue to show gradual development. For playmaking, never-ending drive-and-kicks creating paint penetration will probably be the team’s go-to strategy, but players like Suggs, Cole, Wendell, Franz and Chuma can be considered connector types, with Fultz the most proven natural table-setter.

One underrated factor to Orlando’s revamped roster is all nine prospects under 25, other than possibly R.J. and Cole, projecting to be average or plus defenders, with a few capable of becoming elite defenders. Fultz, Suggs, and even R.J could end up capable of guarding 1–3; Wendell and Bamba have shown the capability to defend traditional 4s as well as protecting the rim at the 5; Franz and Chuma have the versatility and footwork to guard 3–4 effectively while holding their own when switching onto light-footed guards; Jonathan Isaac is a destroyer of worlds, the superstar silencer, and arguably as impactful as any defender in the NBA, when he can stay on the court.

Competing on both ends is the recipe for to contend without a star player; and also a path to attracting star talent in free agency. Every champion since Shaq and Kobe has finished Top-12 in defense and Top-12 in offense; each one has also had at least one star player(s) in the fold, with those balanced Detroit teams built by Hammond and Dumars serving as the only starless exception.

Young vets make up the rest of Orlando’s bench. Terrence Ross is now Orlando’s best shooter; the human torch has carried Magic bench units with stagger screens and contested pull-up elbow middies for five years running. Gary Harris and Michael Carter Williams bring defense and team-first decision-making. New free agent signee Robin Lopez sures up the lack of experienced bigs on this Magic roster. Robin has a reputation as a positive presence in every locker room he joins; his rim-rolling high-energy play-style could be a prime example of what’s expected out of a rotation big. Magic fans will come to enjoy Robin’s patented sky-hook. Mo Wagner and Ignas Brazdeikis are logical, affordable additions in a return to the end of the bench.

Suggs and Franz fit with just about every player on this roster; they’d fit well anywhere, really. Both project to shoot, dribble, and pass while bringing awareness and positive impact to the defensive end. Even if neither ends up a primary scoring option as an off-the-dribble threat, they both rarely hurt their team on either end and consistently make team-first plays.

This Magic roster is full of exciting, young talent to build around. Orlando has depth if an unfortunate injury occurs; otherwise, the Magic’s front office will gauge which prospects gel together, whose development outcomes are realistic in Orlando, and who may be better off in another situation. Over the next two summers, this team can create max cap space to bring in nearly any big name you can imagine. Other than injury luck, only one question remains: can this boastful Magic squad recapture the Heart and Hustle energy that helped land marquee free agent meetings just over two decades ago?

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one small step for man, one giant leap to #FulfillTheProphecy

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