Jaren Jackson Jr., Nerlens Noel, and Carmelo Anthony
Three Pointers from Beyond The RK
Will The Real Unicorn please stand up?
JJJ
Triple J
Trey J
Trip
For the love of the basketball gods, can we pick a nickname for Jaren Jackson Jr., who might as well swipe Kristaps Porzingis’ nickname while he’s not using it. Last season, Jaren flashed his two-way process as the rightful heir to “The Unicorn” throne: the near-seven-foot sniper made 39.4% of his threes on a high-volume 6.5 threes per game, swatting 1.6 shots per game on the other end, tied for the 11th-best blocks per game rate in the league. Jackson’s 54.9% dFG% was tied for the 15th-best rate among players contesting over five shots per game last season. If JJJ’s defensive awareness isn’t his most enticing talent, the Stephy form on his one-motion pull-up jumpers is.
Trey J scored 1.13 PPP on 305 three-point jumpers and 1.175 PPP on 268 catch-and-shoot jumpers in 2019–20. Jaren Jackson Jr.’s 1.114 PPP on all Jump Shots last season was the 17th-most efficient rate in the league among high-volume shooters with over three hundred jumpers taken. Only five forwards ranked ahead of Jaren, and none by more than 0.06 PPP.
Ja Morant connected with Jaren Jackson Jr. for 37 threes in 2019–20, tied for the 34th-most in the league with Markelle Fultz 3PT-assisting Nikola Vucevic, via PBP Stats; LeBron James 3PT-assisted Anthony Davis 35 times during that same Lakers championship season, for comparison. Jaren knocked down as many total threes as Seth Curry (145) and three more than Porzingis, two of Luka Doncic’s floor-spacers in Dallas that season. If a prospect can shoot from beyond the arc at the ferocity of Karl-Anthony Towns, who’s launching 6.3 threes per game and hitting them at a 39.4% clip, AND clamp down the rim anywhere close to an Anthony Davis, who blocked 2.3 shots per game and contested 4.9 shots per game with a 52.1 dFG% in the 2019–20 season, the sky is the roof for that prospect.
The absolute ceiling for a player-type like this is Kevin Garnett, arguably the most impactful defender to ever sprint around the hardwood. A one-to-one comparison may be over the top, but a resemblance in play-style between the unblockable shooting range, perfectly-timed contests, and overall defensive feel exists with Jackson and Garnett, even if the personalities are at such a stark contrast, they might be bizarro evil twins. KG will smack-talk until the sun goes down and rises again, yelling at anyone in sight, and go 200% during a warm-up practice session, whereas, JJJ wouldn’t hurt a fly. The friendly giant still produces, remaining one of the most tantalizing two-way talents in the association. Few players can swat and shoot at a Triple J level.
Looking closer at JJJ’s highest-volume scoring play-types last season reveals the role of a modern, floor-stretching roll-man. In 107 P&R Roll Man possessions, Jaren’s Grizzlies scored 1.243 PPP overall, ranking in the league’s 74th percentile. As a pick-and-pop threat, Memphis scored 1.167 PPP on 42 possessions. When rolling to the basket, Jaren’s team scored 1.25 PPP on 48 possessions; while on the rare seventeen occasions when Jackson slipped the pick, the Grizzlies scored 1.412 PPP. Jackson’s Grizzlies scored 1.05 PPP on 237 JJJ Spot-Ups and 1.345 PPP on 55 JJJ Cuts last year, via Synergy.
This season‘s sample size isn’t large enough to read much into Jaren’s numbers. Through six healthy games in 2020–21, JJJ’s beginning to resemble his former self, but his boxscore has been hit or miss: his 1.5 BPG and 13.8 PPG look relatively okay, but the efficiency isn’t there yet, shooting 43.8% on 10.7 FGA, 22.2% 3P% on 4.5 3PA, 77.8% FT% on 4.5 FTA, and 54.7% TS%. On a positive note, taking 4.5 threes is good volume to keep the defense honest, while 4.5 FTA, 5.5 RPG, and 59.5% 2P% would all be career-highs.
If Memphis makes it through the play-in, we’ll get to see a fresh Jaren Jackson Jr. in the playoffs on a loaded Grizzles team spearheaded by Ja and a second unit that’s stronger than most teams. As the team experiments with where Justice Winslow fits in, Memphis’ bench mob runs deep, featuring table-setter Tyus Jones, up-and-coming scoring option De’Anthony Melton, knockdown shooter Desmond Bane, sky-walking Brandon Clarke, and the tweener big with great feel for the game in Xavier Tillman. If the Grizz Trip up somewhere along the way, we’ll just have to wait for Year 3 JJJ to make the nice leap.
See ya next fall.
Nerlens Noel, The Redeemed Defensive Anchor
Nerlens Noel is blocking everything in sight. Julius Randle, his all-star Knicks teammate, is dropping a 24p–10r–6a all-nba level scoring creator stat-line, while Nerlens Noel is the shot swatting-force behind him anchoring the Knicks’ 4th-best defense. Teammates lead opponents *towards* the rim, where Noel is waiting to throw a lid on it. Opponents may think they have their man beat, only to find a menacing Noel lurking in the paint. While Randle is the engine that makes the offense hum, Nerlens Noel is mucking up the paint job. Coach Thibs customized this tough Knicks-mobile right out of GTA with Nerlens as the graffiti’d hood.
Noel has bounced around the league after starting his career as the initial prize of The Process Sixers, playing for four teams in his first sevens seasons. Whether this is a story of unfulfilled potential or a slew of bad fits on bad teams is neither here nor there for Noel, because he’s here now, the most impactful defender for a top-5 defense for a team on track to land home-court advantage in the playoffs for the first time since a certain hoodied player who will be named later led the Knicks to a first-round playoff series victory over the Celtics in 2013.
After a cup of coffee in Oklahoma City and a hot dog in Dallas, not necessarily in that order, Nerlens has found his own kitchen to cook in through fifty seven games and thirty four starts with the New York Knickerbockers. Noel is tied for 22nd in defensive EPM (+3.1) with De’Anthony Melton, via Dunks and Threes. Nerlens’ Knicks rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive shooting efficiency, allowing opponents to shoot 51.3% eFG%, via Cleaning The Glass.
Noel contests the T-11th-most shots per game at the rim (6.5), while his 51.6% dFG% ranks 5th among players contesting at least five shots at the rim per game, via NBA Stats. Noel’s 2.2 blocks per game and 123 total blocks ranks third in the NBA. One of the NBA’s biggest hustlers, Noel ranks 2nd in racking up Stocks per game, averaging 2.2 BLKs and 1.1 STLs in every outing, while Nerlens is T-20th in deflections, averaging 2.8 per game.
Offensively, Nerlens is limited to an active finishing role. He primarily scores off cuts, P&R rim-rolling, and putbacks, where he scores 1.07 PPP, 1.1 PPP, and 1.045 PPP respectively, via Synergy. He’s not a player you’re asking to create any offense for you, or even to go get a bucket for himself. Noel’s carved out positive impact as a rotation player these past few seasons in other areas, with effort, hustle, and the defensive prowess he’s always had for the game. Time and time again, he’s searched for a role that suits his specific skill-set, mostly on rebuilding teams searching for an identity. Not to sell his time with the Thunder short, where he rebranded his image around the league as a rim-rolling shot-swatter after a falling out in Dallas.
Nerlens saw his 58.7% FG% tick up to 68.4% FG% once the Thunder added Chris Paul into the rotation. Riding the wings of OKC’s blue eyes ultimate three-headed dragon with CP3, SGA and Schroeder, Nerlens showed his ability to fill a role as a cutter, roller, and rim-protecter as a legitimate rotation player in eighteen minutes per game off the bench. His per-36 and per-100 PPG with the CP3 Thunder would actually double this current season; catching lobs from The Point God doesn’t hurt. Fast-forward to now, where Noel is the shot-swatting cornerstone of the league’s fourth-best defense and a starter for the East’s fourth-seed; more than anything else, this is a story of perseverance.
TOP-TEN ALL-TIME SCORER, CARMELO ANTHONY
Kareem. Malone. LeBron. Kobe. Jordan. Dirk. Wilt. Shaq. Moses.
and now…
Melo.
With a hat tip to Elvin Hayes, the Rocket and Bullet who averaged 24 ppg and 14 rpg through his first twelve seasons in the league and held a top-ten status for decades, you can no longer list the Top-Ten All-Time Leading Scorers in NBA history without bringing up the name, the man, the myth, the legend: Melo. Anthony walked into the league as the reigning NCAA player of the year during a one-and-done championship season with Syracuse, dropping over 20 PPG as a rookie out the gate and 25 PPG through his first fourteen seasons, spanning nearly one thousand games.
Some will remember his time with the Knicks similarly to Bernard King, a high-volume all-star scorer who somehow brightened the lights of Madison Square Garden during his moment as New York’s marquee attraction. To others, he’ll be remembered proudly for repping the country as Olympics Melo, the Captain America veteran presence who grew up in international play as a young prospect into a viable overseas scoring option, eventually taking over the title as Team USA’s All-Time Scoring Leader. For the rest of us hoop heads, he’ll always be Nuggets Melo, the tough-shot hitting savant who couldn’t wait to back down his defender for a baseline fadeaway or face up his man at the elbow for a smooth two-jab, one-dribble pull-up jumper.
After a misfit big three situation on the Oklahoma City Thunder and being cast aside in Houston for not playing a specific style, the future hall-of-famer suddenly found himself on the outside of the NBA looking in, with no playing prospects in sight. Spending a full year and nine days in hiatus from the league, critics blamed “analytics” for prematurely retiring Anthony. In reality, Daryl Morey and Mike Dantoni wanted exact roles filled around Harden like defense and 3PT spacing; Anthony, an ISO mid-range specialist, didn’t immediately meet those unrealistic expectations, so Houston moved on.
Endless speculation begged the question, “who would give Carmelo a last chance?” Given the media “baggage” that front offices thought existed with defining a small role for the aging former superstar, hesitance persisted. Then, Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum stepped up to the plate.
“He can help us a lot; we can help him,” McCollum said, according to The Oregonian. “He wants to play in the playoffs and be competitive. He’s a very talented player. I think if we get him — when we get him — I think [we’re] top three in the West, easy.”
“When we got him, everybody had something to say about him: what he’s going to do defensively, he’s getting older, he’s done, where’s he going to fit in,” Damian Lillard said. “Everybody just had something to say: how he is in the locker room and all these things, why it didn’t work out with these other teams. But he came to us, and he was just, like, laid back, good teammate, good for our younger players. On the floor, he’s talking whether he’s having a good or bad game. Just all about the team…He understands what we need from him in certain situations, depending on how the game is going,” Lillard said. “It’s obvious to somebody like me that pays attention to everything. I find it real funny and disrespectful how people speak on him. He’s a Hall of Famer.”
“Clarity,” Anthony said when asked what he gained from his time away from the NBA. “Clarity — that’s it.”
Fast forward to The Bubble, where Anthony had blazed over fifty games into his new trail as a reliable rotation player for Portland. Melo came up big in the clutch against Memphis and during a revenge game against Houston that both gained national attention. In a tied game with the Rockets, Carmelo blocked a P.J. Tucker three before nailing a classic three-fingers-to-the-head trey with under a minute to play to help secure the Blazers victory. Carmelo Anthony felt as clutch as ever:
“Honestly, I don’t think you lose that. If you have it, you have it,” Carmelo said. “It’s something that you have to want to, you have to be willing to put yourself in those situations and enjoy those moments, take those shots and believe that you can make those shots.”
“He’s just not shy about it,” Lillard said. “He finds the spots that we need him in. He’s not out there trying to play it like he’s still in New York or Denver. He knows we need him sometimes to be on the weak side. He knows when it’s time to do an isolation on the block. He respects coach when he might take him out before he’s ready to come out. I just think when you see those type of things from a guy of his stature, I think it says everything to our team.”
Not much has changed from Year 1 to Year 18; Carmelo is still backing down folks for baseline fadeaways and jabbing twice from the elbow before hitting the one-dribble pull-up. As a team, the Blazers score 1.013 PPP when running through Carmelo in the post. Anthony ranks 20th in ISO scoring (1.024 PPP), via Synergy, among players with at least fifty ISOs this season. Melo’s never been a big creator for others, but he’s bought into a team-first role in Portland, where ball-stopping hasn’t been an issue; if anything, the Blazers have relied on Anthony as a backup scoring option when called upon, especially as the team dealt with an onslaught of injuries throughout the season.
Defensively, the criticism is warranted; slow feet can hurt, especially on the perimeter against speedsters. Melo’s girth gives him something to work with in the post, similar to Harden, where a low center of gravity and brute strength help him hold his own on the block. The three-point shooting, however, is for real, reaching a sizable sample size with Melo shooting 39.6% 3P% on 4.3 attempts per game through 122 regular season games with Portland, half of which he came off the bench in. This season, Carmelo’s scoring 1.161 PPP on 3PT Jumpers, via Synergy.
It’s time to give Carmelo Anthony his flowers. We don’t see as many players nowadays starting their moves from that murky inefficient era between the restricted area and the arc known as the “mid-range”. Prime Melo the middy magician was as silky-smooth of a tough shot-maker as anyone before him, and with his elite footwork, he’s hardly lost his touch. A mid-range assassin who will be remembered for endless jab-steps, robed bodega visits, and hoodied pull-ups, Anthony might be the last of his breed. Only twenty players have played more NBA seasons than Carmelo Anthony, who’s played as many as LeBron James (18), one more than Dwight Howard (17), and two more than Chris Paul. Shout out to Melo, for keeping Portland’s playoff chase afloat in the year 2021 and for scoring 27,318 points and counting, tallying more points than all but nine human beings in the history of basketball.
data sources: NBA Stats, Basketball Reference, PBP Stats
follow @ BeyondTheRK on Twitter / Youtube for more data visualizations, film clips, and words on Orlando Magic basketball and the NBA!
