How The Orlando Magic Win One (1) Playoff Game Against Giannis and The Death Star Bucks in The Bubble
Door A: Magic Happens. (no, not an injury to Giannis, you deviants. more like the historic game-winning shot D.J. Augustin hit last playoffs)
Door B: threes, threes, and three more threes. While Milwaukee holds the league’s best defensive rating from the regular season (103.8; via Cleaning The Glass), The Death Star Bucks have one weak point exhaust port to shoot at: the arc. The Bucks give up the most threes in the NBA, especially to low-volume and inefficient shooters; Coach Bud prioritizes protecting the rim, defensive rebounding, not fouling, and taking away primary scoring options. Among the defensive four factors, Milwaukee ranks 1st in eFG%, 1st in DRB%, and 6th in FT Rate. (via Cleaning The Glass)
Here’s an excerpt from Ben Falk’s in-depth piece digging deep into the Bucks’ defensive strategy, breaking down why the Bucks are daring hesitant and below average perimeter shooters to beat them:
“after staying around the same for a decade-plus, the average half court eFG% has gone up by around one percentage point in each of the last four seasons…teams aren’t shooting better from three… they’re shooting slightly worse. The increased eFG% is mostly a result of replacing lower efficiency midrange shots with their higher efficiency three-point counterparts. Additionally, more three point shooting has meant defenses have had to cover more ground. Defenses covering more ground has meant the rim has been more open. A more open rim means offenses have increased their rate of attempts at the rim in the half court, and finished better there: the average team made 58% of their shots at the rim in 2014–15, while they have made 62% so far this year… The average half court shot in 2014–15 had an eFG% of 47.4% — a 33% three has an eFG% of 50%. Allow that on every possession and you’d have the 28th ranked half court eFG% defense in 2014–15. But the game has changed so quickly that today’s math is completely flipped. Give up a 33% three on every half court shot this year and you’d have the 9th ranked half court eFG% defense.”
So, teams are scoring more efficiently overall due to smarter shot selection and better spacing allowing easier shots at the rim; however, since 3P% has dipped down as a whole, the efficiency of the player shooting the shot becomes much more important. Ben Falk goes on to determine that the Bucks “allow far and away the most non-corner threes to below average shooters”, which he defines as shooters who shot under 35 3P% on 50+ non-corner 3PA this year.
Orlando’s best outside shooters are Terrence Ross, Evan Fournier, and D.J. Augustin. Ross shot 41.7% from the corner this season on 48 looks but made merely 34.7% of his 450 tries from above the break; Fournier shot 52.2% on 67 attempts from the corner and 37.6% on 367 attempts from above the break; Augustin shot only 31 corner threes (32.2%), while shooting 36.4% from above the break on 165 attempts. Milwaukee will likely look to smother these shooters while leaving everyone else relatively open; Orlando needs to fight to get these three open before settling for their less consistent options.
When going through the rotation for each team, its hard to find a matchup advantage for Orlando at a single position; this one (1) playoff victory will take a team effort… and a whole bunch of threes. Clifford had Orlando focus on this drive-and-kick premise when these teams matched up in February:
Milwaukee’s strategy might have very well been the best way to win the most regular season games against opponents whose quality changed nightly; (they did post the best defensive rating, after all) but, there is a clear chink in the armor. Every team hopes to score efficiently, which PPP usually shows is on the free throw line, at the rim, and from beyond the arc; although Milwaukee is the best in the league at closing off the rim without fouling, they primarily close out on above average perimeter shooters. To take advantage of what could be the Bucks’ only weakness, Orlando needs to create as many open threes as possible, ideally for their heaviest guns. (Fournier, Ross, D.J.)
Here’s a visualization of the plays Orlando runs most frequently. (data via NBA stats and The BBall Index)
To create good shots for their three best outside shooters, The Magic have to get creative. Off-ball stagger screens are a necessary go-to staple for Clifford; Orlando can also create open looks from outside by utilizing a force of their choice that draws gravity in the paint: post-ups, drives, or pick-and-rolls. Other than Nikola Vucevic as the roll-man in P&R situations (1.13 PPP), Orlando’s most efficient plays by PPP include Fournier and Ross in spot-up situations (1.17 PPP and 1.03 PPP, respectively); Fournier handoffs (1.02 PPP), and running those same two shooters off stagger screens for clean looks from deep (both 1.10 PPP). In addition to using off-ball movement and screens to free up their best marksmen, setting up standstill spot-up threes is a goal for Orlando; Fournier has been their best pull-up option (36.8% 3P%) off the dribble this season, but he’s cooled off after a hot start to the year. While Vucevic is having a down year in the post after an all-star outing last season (0.81 PPP), Aaron Gordon’s playmaking from the post has shown strides. The Magic score 0.94 PPP when they feed AG the rock down low. It’s old school, but as a hub for facilitating, Aaron Gordon has found his home as a playmaker in the post.
Although Fultz running P&R as the ball-handler is only producing 0.85 PPP, The Magic could still look to force-feed their half-court offense an onslaught of Markelle Fultz-Nikola Vucevic pick-and-rolls. Fournier, Ross, even D.J. have proven to be capable P&R partners with Vucevic, but having Markelle in that on-ball role maximizes his impact on the court. Not only is Orlando at its most dynamic with the ball in Fultz’ hands, they’re at their most-spaced when he’s the driving force towards the rim. Markelle doesn’t stretch the floor off the ball, while all of Ross, D.J., Fournier, and Gordon/Vucevic to a lesser degree, do; like Russell Westbrook, Fultz is often the most disruptive force in the paint, the point guard, and the worst shooter on the court for his team, all at the same time.
since 1/1/20, here’s Orlando’s outside shooters sorted by 3P% (via NBA Stats)
Wes Iwundu (42.2%, 1.9 3PA)
Evan Fournier (38.1%, 6.8 3PA)
Terrence Ross (36.4%, 8.3 3PA)
D.J. Augustin (36.0%, 3.7 3PA)
Gary Clark (35%, 2.5 3PA)
Mo Bamba (34.7%, 1.5 3PA; get well soon, Mo)
Nikola Vucevic (33.7%, 4.9 3PA)
Michael Carter-Williams (33.3%, 1.7 3PA)
Aaron Gordon (32.3%, 3.8 3PA)
James Ennis (28.6%, 3.2 3PA)
Markelle Fultz (26.8%, 2.1 3PA)
and here’s how much better each of those player’s 3P% is in catch-and-shoot situations compared to their overall 3P%: (via NBA Stats)
+4.5% D.J. Augustin (40.5%, 1.5 3PA)
+3.8% Aaron Gordon (36.1%, 2.5 3PA)
+3.6% Evan Fournier (41.7%, 3.8 3PA)
+2.5% Gary Clark (37.5%, 2.3 3PA)
+2.5% Markelle Fultz (29.3%, 1.5 3PA)
+2.4% James Ennis (31%, 2.1 3pa)
+1.5% Terrence Ross (37.9%, 6.3 3PA)
+1.5% Mo Bamba (36.2%, 1.4 3PA)
+0.8% Michael Carter-Williams (34.1%, 1.6, )
+0.0% Nikola Vucevic (nearly all attempts are C&S)
-2.2% Wes Iwundu (40%, 1.5 3PA)
Clifford has a decision to make; who starts on the wing? With Gordon expected to check Giannis, Orlando needs someone to guard Middleton. Fournier is up to the challenge, but will likely be asked to carry a heavy offensive load. Terrence Ross or Gary Clark maximizes the starter’s spacing, but takes away scoring options from the bench unit. Wes Iwundu usually fits in well as a fill-in starter, his presence allows Fournier to focus on offense while Wes checks Middleton and adds a sensible decision-maker into the starting unit. Even though his defensive energy would help, MCW’s not a good enough perimeter shooter to fit with Fultz, Vucevic, and Gordon in the starting unit if he’s healthy enough to play. James Ennis isn’t the best choice for any one goal, but he is a reasonable placeholder to run with the starters, leaving MCW-Ross-Iwundu-Clark-Birch to balance out Orlando’s bench unit, a lineup that hopefully never sees the floor as a whole without a starter or two mixed in. With his hot shooting since the new year and capability to challenge Middleton on the defensive end, Iwundu seems like the ideal choice to start, allowing Orlando to keep their few options for bench scoring in the second unit.
Transition is obviously an avenue for speedy, easy baskets. With Orlando tragically missing their own Giannathan Jisaactetokoumnpo, slowing down the original Giannis will be a nearly impossible task; turnovers will be hard to come by. Build a wall the best one can, close-out on Middleton, try to force Bledsoe to beat you. The more looks in transition or semi-transition that Orlando creates, the less they have to create from scratch in the half-court.
The Magic did survive the second half of the season without Jonathan Isaac, who went down in the first game of 2020 on New Years Day. Since that date, Orlando has maintained the 11th-best offense (by O-RTG) and 13th-best defense (by D-RTG), turned the ball over at the 4th-best rate (12.6% TOV%), and ranked 2nd in DRB%, 6th in defensive FT-Rate, and 14th at forcing turnovers. (14.1% TOV%) (via Cleaning The Glass)
in 25 games since February 1st, The Magic have posted the 5th-best offense in the NBA (116.0 O-RTG; via Cleaning The Glass)
Markelle Fultz, the engine behind anything Orlando finds in transition, is among players whom The BBall Index identifies as “Point-of-Attack” defenders; this visualization breaks down which of those players are pushing the pace and which of their teams are scoring efficiently through those players in transition via PPP. (data via NBA Stats and The BBall Index)
Markelle The Magician has the ability to take and make any pull-up, stop-and-pop, middy, fadeaway, floater, fake-spin reverse… any shot he wants in the paint. The moment he draws in the extra defender, he finds his open teammate, whether its a feed to Vucevic lurking near the rim, a dime to a cutting wing, or a hockey assist to an open shooter. Different renditions of this pick-and-roll might as well be on rinse and repeat for The Magic all game; this play utilizes Orlando’s players in nearly all of their ideal roles by PPP play-type: Vucevic as P&R Roll-Man, Markelle as P&R Ball-Handler, Fournier in Orlando’s most coveted play-type (Spot-Up), Ross in his second-best play-type (Spot-Up), and Aaron Gordon as a secondary creator, an off-ball finisher, and a dual-threat to pick or pop alongside Vucevic in double-drag pick-and-rolls and horns sets.
If you really think about it, logically speaking, if one is able to win one game like this… well, one could win two, three, heck, maybe even four games.
FIRE THE PROTON TORPEDOES!
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