How a Ball Curves: La Force de LaMelo
Three Pointers from Beyond The RK
Let’s cut to the chase: LaMelo Ball is a basketball savant. Already one of the slickest dimers in the league, the 6'8" point-guard is on a superstar trajectory. Between playmakers like Jokic, LeBron, CP3, Luka, Harden, and Trae, the NBA is loaded with elite table-setters; few, if any, share the feel, vision, and cajones to try the most outlandish possible pass on what feels like every play. With his defensive energy, suddenly efficient long-ball, and apparent team-first mindset, LaMelo has quickly put his critics to rest. Concerns of not giving consistent effort, stat-chasing, and iffy decision-making have, for the most part, been squashed.
Beginning the year in a relatively small role, Ball has blossomed into running the show as the squad’s first option. Ball has posted near-triple-double stat-lines all season; in 28.8 minutes per game, LaMelo averages a box score of 15.8 PTS, 6 REB, 1.6 STLs and 6.2/3 A/TO, via Basketball Reference. Ball’s only making 50% on 8 twos per game, but his outside shot has been better than advertised, hitting 35.5% on just over 5 threes per game; and, he’s converting 75.5% of his shots from the charity stripe, getting to the line 3.2 times per game. Head Coach James Borrego slow-burning LaMelo’s development by playing him as a reserve to start the season, allowing Ball to make mistakes and not feel rushed, has brought meaningful experience. Forcing Ball to earn his playing time and role in the rotation, Borrego has allowed LaMelo to learn at his own pace. Hayward may have been the team’s leading scorer and closest thing to an All-Star this season, but the ball is clearly in LaMelo’s court going forward.
Picking his spots within the system, Ball has proved to be a capable off-ball threat by scoring 1.037 PPP on 162 Spot-Ups and 0.927 PPP on 55 Hand Offs, via Synergy. With his experience playing an up-and-down tempo back in high school at Chino Hills with now-Atlanta Hawk Onyeka Okongwu and his brother Lonzo of the New Orleans Pelicans, running fast breaks comes naturally to LaMelo, who’s scoring 0.945 PPP in transition on 183 possessions. The leader for rookie of the year, LaMelo stands out as as a scorer in his draft class; among the top ten players on NBA.com’s rookie ladder, LaMelo ranks 1st in ISO PPP, 4th in P&R Ball-Handler PPP, 4th in Spot Up PPP, and 5th in Hand Off PPP, visualized below:
Between the shot-making ability, handles, and feel for the game, LaMelo’s already one of the toughest players to guard in the NBA. Leave Ball on an island, and he won’t feel any need to spell out “help” with twigs and sticks. Instead, Ball is getting buckets as the 3rd-most efficient ISO scorer in the NBA (1.152 PPP), among players with at least fifty ISO possessions this season:
LaMelo’s quickly found balance running pick-and-rolls, helping his team score 0.979 PPP overall in 560 possessions with Ball as the P&R ball-handler and 1.118 PPP in the 296 possessions where Ball passes the ball out of P&R. When LaMelo targets a spot-up shooter, Charlotte scores 1.035 PPP on 142 possessions; when he hits the roller, the Hornets score 1.176 PPP on 125 possessions.
Among players with 300+ possessions running P&R as the ball-handler when the defense commits, LaMelo’s 0.98 PPP is tied for the 17th-most efficient rate in the league, via Synergy. His Hornets are essentially scoring just as efficiently (0.98 PPP) in the 343 possessions when the defense commits to LaMelo running P&R as they are when the defense uses single coverage against Ball running P&R. (0.977 PPP)
In The Physics of Basketball, John Fontanella explores unseen elements of the sport, discovering effects that may not appear clear to the naked eye. He determines that a basketball feels the effects of four forces when in the air: buoy, drag, gravity, and magnus. The Magnus Force is the force that makes a ball curve. For The Magnus Force to take effect on a ball, the ball must already be moving and spinning. For example, if the ball has a velocity downward and is spinning counter-clockwise, The Magnus Force is to the right:
Fontanella concludes that the easiest way to throw a basketball the longest distance is to use a sidearm technique, where the object flies out in a similar angle to Olympic field throwers launching a discus from the hip. For example, when the ball is thrown in this manner by a right-handed player, the ball spins around an approximately vertical axis so that the ball curves to the right as viewed by the thrower. The spin and horizontal trajectory of the ball are similar to those for a screwball in baseball.
The Magnus Force increases as the linear speed or rotational speed of the ball quickens; its equation can be simplified to the following for a men’s basketball: F = 0.018wv, where F is The Magnus Force, w is the rotational speed, and v is the linear speed. This equation predicts that, given the same linear speed and rotation speed, The Magnus Force on a basketball is about 38x stronger than on a baseball.
These risky full-court scoop-passes rarely happen in a professional setting, unless there’s a daredevil dimer brash enough to try. Enter LaMelo Ball, Charlotte’s quick-draw gunner who seems to have stolen Pete’s Pistols. Not only does LaMelo have the gumption to try any trick-pass he can imagine, he actually has the skill, feel, and vision to pull them off. Here’s what these discus launches look like on the hardwood from LaMelo Ball, “Pistol” Pete Maravich, and Milos Teodosic:
The Charlotte Hornets have earned their status as a League Pass staple. Ball doesn’t “throw passes”, he gently tosses the rock; his full-court LaMoneyballs are becoming a nightly event. While the LaMelo Ball-Miles Bridges Lob Connection has lapped ‘Zo-to-Zion in viral highlights this season, the Pelicans pair has doubled LaMelo to Miles in direct assists, with Lonzo Ball assisting Zion Williamson 97 times while LaMelo has assisted Miles 45 times, via PBP Stats. If his team can master the idea of relocation for pristine floor-spacing, giving LaMelo driving lanes as wide as possible, Ball can be maximized as a lead decision-maker for this roster, especially if this team ever finds him a complementary pick-and-popping defensive anchor big.
Before Ball even showed up, Borrego already had this young Hornets squad playing a modern, exciting style of basketball featuring ball-movement and snap decision-making, allowing tweeners who lacked a traditional position to thrive. DeVonte’ Graham, Terry Rozier, Malik Monk, Miles Bridges, P.J. Washington, Jalen McDaniels and the Martins twins provide depth for Charlotte, where Borrego seems to enforce the Popovichian “point-five second” rule: players should not hold the ball for more than half a second before shooting, passing, or dribbling. This team mentality allows everyone to score in advantageous situations, while defenses are recovering, so non-creator individuals aren’t overtasked with creating offense from scratch; instead, they can focus on “finishing” plays on the move, like Rozier popping out of a Spain-pick-and-roll for a C&S three-point attempt or taking a handoff into a drive against a scrambling defense.
Choosing to play within the system rather than revolt against it, Ball has embraced the Hornets style of perpetual ball-movement. Few players even *want* to pass, let alone have the guts to try trick-passes in a game; for Ball, however, dropping no-look dimes is a way of life. LaMelo brings a playmaking element that takes this offense to the next level, giving Charlotte a must-see franchise cornerstone and full-time scoring creator who Hornets fans get to watch improve into a potential superstar.
for more data visualizations, words, and film clips on the Orlando Magic and NBA, FOLLOW @ Beyond The RK on Twitter and YouTube!
Data Sources: Synergy Sports, Basketball Reference, NBA Stats, PBP Stats
