Aaron Gordon, Orlando’s Swish-Army Knife
This Orlando Magic season hasn’t exactly gone according to plan. Last year, their top six rotation players (Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier, Nikola Vucevic, DJ Augustin, Jonathan Isaac, and Terrence Ross) missed a total of 14 games; this year, those same six players have missed 66 games between them, with 21 games still left to play. However, there are a few positives to Orlando’s season so far, including: Markelle Fultz’ breakout, Evan Fournier’s initial shooting spark, Mo Bamba’s development, Michael Carter-Williams’ hustle, and Jonathan Isaac’s All-Defensive worthy half-season.
Even before Isaac’s likely season-ending injury, though, something about the Magic’s offense felt off. Orlando’s pace is slow, grinding out possessions to minimize the difference in talent. Head Coach Steve Clifford’s ideology focuses on the four factors by reducing possessions, pace, and turnovers for his teams to mitigate as many mistakes as possible; Clifford teams don’t beat themselves. This extreme lean into safety might be holding back some of Orlando’s personnel from reaching their ceiling. Orlando’s young core (Fultz, Gordon, Bamba, Isaac) would all benefit from the easy shots that come from transition due to playing at a faster pace. Vucevic might be the only player on the roster who benefits from this commitment to safety; there’s a chance Clifford’s affinity for playing through Vucevic in the high-post impacts the decision to keep the pace at full-tortoise. The Magic’s roster in the long-term is built for Markelle to push the pace with everyone else filing in as secondary creators and off-ball finishers; but, in the short-term, Orlando relies on a Fournier-Vucevic pick-and-roll in the half-court to create the majority of its offense.
Aaron Gordon has proven his flexibility, sacrificing his ideal role for what’s best for the team, usually guarding the opposing team’s best 2–4 wing on one end of the floor while waiting around the perimeter on the other. When called upon, Aaron has shown the capability for an expanded role. On the block, he will post-up mismatches, find cutters, and create shot opportunities for himself and teammates by drawing fouls and double-teams. AG’s obviously a monster in transition; he might be less of a traditional wing iso scorer and more of a modern four with the ability to switch 1–5 and high proficiency in finishing, playmaking, post play, roll gravity, and off-ball movement.
If he’s standing role-less on the wing, expected to create for himself against quicker wings, AG might not look his best; when played at the right position, in the right role, with complementary personnel surrounding him, Aaron Gordon’s high-octane game comes to light. When a player is able to handle different roles from possession to possession without hurting his team in any area, he gives his team a lot of options. Offensively speaking, one might compare him to a smaller Blake Griffin, not only due to his leaping ability, but due to the range of roles he can handle by the possession, whether it be as an off-ball finisher vs a low-post creator, or as a P&R ball-handler vs P&R roll-man. Ideally, Aaron would develop into a modern version of Shawn Marion; a do-it-all, oversized wing who can shut down multiple positions, score and create as a secondary playmaker, while dominating the off-ball roles of finishing, catch-and-shooting, and rim-rolling. With his versatility as a defender and variety of weapons on offense, Aaron Gordon is Orlando’s Swish-Army Knife.
Here’s a look at Aaron Gordon’s progress throughout his career as an outside shooter compared to Blake Griffin and Shawn Marion, via DARKO:
There’s good news and bad news for the Orlando Magic. On the one hand, they employ a player in Aaron Gordon who rates above average or better in every skill category, according to The BBall Index’s Talent Grades; on the other hand, his worst attributes appear to involve the perimeter, where Orlando has played him his entire career. Perhaps The Magic should look to find more minutes for Aaron Gordon at the four, even though he’s shown the ability to guard multiple positions.
Aaron Gordon’s BBall Index Talent Grade Percentiles
via The BBall Index
(among all players, as of 2/16)
95.5% (A) Finishing
94.8% (A) D-Rebounding
89.6% (A-) Playmaking
86.3% (A-) Roll Gravity
82.2% (A-) Post Play
81.3% (A-) Off-Ball Movement
78.1% (B+) O-Rebounding
68.7% (B) Interior Defense
57.4% (C+) One on One
53.8% (C+) Perimeter Shooting
57.3% (C ) Perimeter Defense
Categorizing Aaron Gordon as a “Glue Guy” due to his offensive role, the following graph compares Aaron Gordon’s PIPM to other Power Forwards considered “Glue Guys” by The BBall Index’s Talent Grades:
(among PFs with > 200 MIN)
Aaron Gordon joins Giannis Antetokoumnpo as the only two Power Forwards with talent grades of C- or better in every skill category; this graph compares the PIPM values of all players who meet that standard:
Aaron Gordon’s Flaming Hot February (12 GP)
per game: 19 PTS 9 REB
1 STL 1 BLK 6 AST/ 2 TO
shooting 48–40–69
57% TS% | 54 % eFG%
21% USG% | 13.4% TRB%
22% AST% | 9.3% TOV%
(via basketball reference)
highlights, boxscores, and notes from all of Aaron Gordon’s games in February:
2/1/2020 VS MIA (L)
24 PTS 5 REB 2 STL 1 AST / 0 TO
Though inconsistent and arguably the skill Aaron most needs to define, Gordon’s three-point shooting still has its moments. Ideally, AG would spend the time in the off-season to add this tool to his already diverse game. Becoming an efficient C&S threat from outside would drastically improve his fit with Fultz and Isaac in the long-term; while developing a reliable pull-up jumper off the dribble would immediately push Gordon’s ceiling to new heights.
2/3/2020 @ CHO (W)
16 PTS 12 REB 2 STL 5 AST/ 1 TO
Pushing the pace off turnovers, extra passes, good defense, and team-first goals on both ends is the theme of the night. Flirting with their ideal identity, The Magic’s young core drops a statement game against the Hornet’s young core. Aaron Gordon thrives as a secondary option playing off Fultz.
2/5/2020 @ BOS (L)
23 PTS 10 REB 2 STL 1 BLK 4 AST/ 5 TO
This game, mainly in the first half, is a great example of how to work the offense through Aaron Gordon in the post.
Aaron Gordon’s 0.91 PPP in Post-Up situations (115 poss) is T-19th among all players averaging over 2 post-ups per game. Feed AG in the post; he ordered barbecue chicken!
The BBall Index Talent Grades
Post Play: 82.2% (A-) among all players; 66.7% (B) among PFs > 650 MP
2/6/2020 @ NYK (L)
16 PTS 4 REB 1 STL 5 AST / 1 TO
In a loss to the Knicks, what can be learned? Aaron Gordon forces a turnover, racks up a few of his everyday, highlight-reel worthy dunks, and positively impacts the team offensively through scoring and creation.
2/8/2020 vs MIL (L)
7 PTS 9 REB 1 STL 5 AST / 0 TO
Aaron’s worst game of the month comes against the best opponent of the month; it’s worth noting Orlando’s favorable strength of schedule (SOS) in this period along with the increased opportunity that’s been previously unavailable to Gordon.
2/10/2020 — Team USA Snub
Marc Stein reports a 44-man preliminary roster that Team USA plans on choosing from to bring to the 2020 Tokyo Olympics; Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac are not listed.
Did this make Aaron Gordon raise his already strong month to another level?
AG’s averages over the final seven games of February:
(5–2 record) 20 PPG 10 RPG
1 BPG 1 SPG 7 APG / 2 TO
shooting 52–46–76
62% TS% | 58% eFG%
19% USG% | 14% TRB%
23% AST% | 11% TOV%
(via basketball reference)
2/10/2020 vs ATL (W)
26 PTS 9 REB 1 BLK 4 AST / 2 TO
Aaron Gordon’s effort level reaches over 9000.
2/12/2020 vs DET (W)
25 PTS 9 REB 1 BLK 1 STL 9 AST/ 1 TO
Fultz dictates the pace; Gordon gets buckets; and both create shot opportunities for others. AG drills catch-and-shoot threes, scores out of the post, and kicks to shooters out of double-teams, while collecting a steal and a block. Aaron Gordon shows off his full arsenal of weapons, revealing how he impacts The Magic on both ends as Orlando’s Swish-Army Knife.
2/17/2020 — Highway Robbery
Aaron Gordon returns to the dunk contest, forces overtime by dropping perfect scores in every round, including the best dunk(s) of the night, and still somehow goes home to an empty trophy case; the kid gets hosed.
#AirGordon is forever The People’s Champ.
2/21/2020 vs DAL (L)
10 PTS 12 REB 2 STL 1 BLK 7 AST/ 2 TO
Aaron Gordon has guarded Luka Doncic for a span of fifteen minutes over two games this season; Luka’s combined line in that span: 5/17 FG (29.4%), 0/7 3P, 6 AST/ 5 TO, drawing 3 shooting fouls in 15 MIN. (via nba stats dot com)
2/24/2020 @ BRK (W)
27 PTS 10 REB 2 BLK 1 STL 4 AST/ 2 TO
Aaron Gordon secures the game with a huge block in the clutch while hitting shots late alongside Terrence Ross to force a comeback win for Orlando.
2/26/2020 @ ATL (W)
25 PTS 10 REB 3 BLK 1 STL 6 AST / 1 TO
AG’s final form is something even Frieza envies. With four “stocks”, efficient shooting, and a 6/1 A/TO in this one, Aaron reveals how his hard work is paying off. The best way to utilize Gordon continues to be working the offense through him in the post with opportunity as a secondary creator and allowing Aaron the chance to make decisions as a playmaker. SOS, injuries to vital teammates, and heavy minutes in his more natural position of Power Forward helps improve production, too.
2/28/2020 vs MIN (W)
17 PTS 11 REB 2 BLK 12 AST/ 2 TO
Aaron Gordon records the first triple-double of his career! An up-close and personal look at AG shredding an admittedly meek Minnesota defense:
2/29/2020 @ SAS (L)
7 PTS 6 REB 1 STL 6 AST / 3 TO
Aaron Gordon closes out the month the same way he started, with one of his everyday, highlight-reel worthy slams.
How much was February a sign of what’s to come for Gordon compared to Aaron staying ready when opportunity called in terms of minutes, role, and SOS? Let’s compare his per-40 averages to his per-game averages in February:
Aaron Gordon’s per-40 averages for the season: (54gp)
18 PTS 9 REB 1 STL 1 BLK 4 AST/ 2 TO
shooting 43–31–67
51% TS% | 48% eFG%
20% USG% | 12 TRB%
17% AST% | 10% TOV%
compared to his per-game averages in February: (12gp)
19 PTS 9 REB 1 STL 1 BLK 6 AST/ 2 TO (37 MIN)
shooting 48–40–69
57% TS% | 54 % eFG%
21% USG% | 13.4% TRB%
22% AST% | 9.3% TOV%
The Numbers
Points Per Possession
Aaron Gordon’s Best Playtypes by Points Per Possession (PPP)
(via nba stats dot com)
1.14 PPP in Transition (141 poss)
0.91 PPP in Post-Up (115 poss)
0.89 PPP in Spot-Up (135 poss)
promising, but needs bigger sample size:
1.58 PPP on Cuts (67 poss)
1.30 PPP as P&R Roll-Man (20 poss)
1.04 PPP on Put-Backs (68 poss)
Cleaning The Glass
With Aaron Gordon ON the court, Orlando is…
scoring +2.1 more Points per Possession,
shooting 3.1% more efficiently via eFG%,
and turning the ball over 1.0% less often.
Defense
AG’s BBall Index Talent Grades
Interior D: 68.7% (B) among all players; 44.3% (C-) among PFs > 600 MP
Perimeter D: 57.3% (C ) among all players; 36.9% (D+) among PFs > 600 MP
Steals, Blocks, and Double-Blocks
Aaron Gordon is T-68th in BLK% (1.6%) and T-130th in STL% (1.2%) among qualified players. (via basketball reference)
Transition
Fast break opportunities most often reveal themselves after forced turnovers; Aaron Gordon’s 1.14 PPP in Transition (141 poss) is T-55th among players with over 2 transition possessions per game.
Playmaking
AG’s BBall Index Talent Grades
89.6% (A-) among all players; 86.6% (A-) among PFs > 650 MP
among forwards (via Cleaning The Glass), Aaron Gordon’s percentiles:
84th in USG% (21%)
85th in AST% (15.8%)
72nd in TOV% (10.2%)
Highlights maximizing Aaron’s high-post creation are noted earlier; here’s a play Magic fans should be overly familiar with:
a big standing at the elbow, waiting to hit a backdoor cutter:
Perimeter Shooting
AG’s BBall Index Talent Grades
57.3% (C ) among all players; 25.4% (D-) among PFs > 650 MP
Aaron Gordon sports a 0.89 PPP in Spot-Up situations. (135 poss)
ISO
AG’s BBall Index Talent Grades
One on One: 57.4% (C+) among all players; 31.4% (D) among PFs > 650 MP
Finishing, Off-Ball Movement, Cuts
AG’s BBall Index Talent Grades
Finishing: 95.5% (A) among all players; 94.1% (A) among PFs > 650 MP
Off-Ball: 81.3% (A-) among all players; 74.5% (B+) among PFs > 650 MP
Aaron Gordon’s 1.58 PPP on Cuts (67 poss) ranks 5th among players averaging over 1 “cut” possession per game.
Impact Metric Rankings
BPM (via basketball reference)
T-120th in BPM (-0.3)
T-88th in Defensive-BPM (0.0)
PIPM (via The BBall Index)
T-302nd in PIPM (-0.64)
T-169th in Offensive-PIPM (-0.04)
among 88 PF/SFs with 800+ MP, Aaron Gordon is ranked 57th in PIPM and 41st in Offensive-PIPM
RAPTOR (via 538)
T-280th in RAPTOR (-2.2)
T-174th in Offensive-Raptor (-0.3)
among the 59 PFs with 1000+ MP, Aaron Gordon is ranked T-29th in Offensive Raptor and T-45th in overall RAPTOR.
RPM (via espn)
T-137th in RPM (+0.19)
T-23rd in Defensive RPM (+1.29)
among 90 PFs, Aaron Gordon is ranked 6th in Defensive RPM
(Jonathan Isaac is 2nd)
Clutch
Aaron Gordon’s shot-making in the last five minutes of games with a point-differential of +/- 5 PTS. (via nba stats dot com)
14/22 FG (63.6%) — 6/11 3P (54.5%) — 9/11 FT (81.8%)
Aaron’s clutch moments in February have already been mentioned;
here’s a look at Gordon’s game-winner and highlights from a game in Sacramento from January:
1/13/20 @ SAC (W) 19pts-9reb-2ast/0to-1blk, 1 game-winning shot
…and highlights from the game many Magic fans consider the best of the season; The Fultz-Gordon Takeover of Los Angeles:
1/15/20 @ LAL (W) 21 PTS 6 REB 2 STL 3 AST/4 TO
Since Jonathan Isaac is likely out for the season, Markelle Fultz and Mo Bamba are still growing into their own, and some Magic players are regressing from last season, AG’s new role involves doing a little bit of everything. For The Magic to find the most dynamic version of themselves, Coach Clifford must trust Aaron Gordon and unleash Orlando‘s Swish-Army Knife.
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(stats as of 3/1/20 via bball ref or nba-stats-dot-com unless stated otherwise)
